{"coefficients":[{"feature":"__intercept__","coefficient":-3.1359292369635603},{"feature":"ca_gdp","coefficient":-0.1474514735488351},{"feature":"ca_gdp__missing","coefficient":-2.2149587816182783},{"feature":"debt_gdp","coefficient":0.20064768178770337},{"feature":"debt_gdp__missing","coefficient":0.982628317553198},{"feature":"debt_gdp_chg_3y","coefficient":0.022078875551159},{"feature":"debt_gdp_chg_3y__missing","coefficient":-1.2591488873561534},{"feature":"fiscal_bal_gdp","coefficient":-0.05194804652765384},{"feature":"fiscal_bal_gdp__missing","coefficient":-0.17587967357291262},{"feature":"fx_depr","coefficient":-0.18312650142431178},{"feature":"fx_depr__missing","coefficient":-0.8434423032504788},{"feature":"infl_log","coefficient":0.5908793792019185},{"feature":"infl_log__missing","coefficient":-0.736639328943114},{"feature":"reserves_gdp","coefficient":0.09545732072868972},{"feature":"reserves_gdp__missing","coefficient":0.3993072780142974},{"feature":"rgdp_growth","coefficient":-0.13640515483130375},{"feature":"rgdp_growth__missing","coefficient":-0.6528012890197865}],"evaluation":[{"scope":"pooled","test_observations":4445,"positive_events":79,"model_auc":0.6889572473138231,"benchmark_auc":0.7461802072400656},{"scope":"natural_experiment","test_observations":142,"positive_events":12,"model_auc":0.6487179487179487,"benchmark_auc":0.717948717948718}],"caveat":"This is a screen over public annual macro data, not a forecast or rating. The model loses to debt/GDP alone in both published evaluations, so debt/GDP is the better single public indicator.","methodology":"/sovereign/stress","sources":[{"label":"Global Macro Database","url":"https://www.globalmacrodata.com/"},{"label":"Bank of Canada and Bank of England sovereign default database","url":"https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/07/staff-analytical-note-2025-11/"}]}