{"entity":{"iso3":"USA"},"as_of_year":2025,"features_through_year":2024,"score":{"p_onset_next_three_years":0.04268882307809985,"decile":4},"model_version":"ews-1.0","data_vintage":"jst-r6(2020);lv-2026-wp2694(2023);bis-gap(2025-Q4);gmd-2026_06(cut2024)","evaluation":{"test_observations":5930,"positive_events":389,"model_auc":0.6242230737076127,"benchmark_auc":0.6794201861130995},"caveat":"This is a modelled probability, not a forecast. The pooled out-of-sample model AUC is 0.624, below the 0.679 BIS credit-gap benchmark, so the output is a research screen and not a warning about a country.","methodology":"/crises/early-warning","sources":[{"label":"Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database","url":"https://www.macrohistory.net/database/"},{"label":"Laeven-Valencia Systemic Banking Crises Database","url":"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/08/28/Systemic-Banking-Crises-Database-II-49660"},{"label":"BIS credit-to-GDP gaps","url":"https://www.bis.org/statistics/c_gaps.htm"},{"label":"Global Macro Database","url":"https://www.globalmacrodata.com/"}]}