Chinese overseas lending / ARM
Armenia: debt owed to China
In 2021, Armenia is estimated to have owed China $22m, equal to 0.2% of its GDP, which ranks it 115 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $23m in 2020.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2018, when it rose by $4.16m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Armenia, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Armenia reports owing to all creditors
Armenia reported $14.04bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $6.25bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 0.2% of the reported external total and 0.4% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $22m | $14.04bn | 0.2% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $22m | $6.25bn | 0.4% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Armenia's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology