Open financial-economics analytics
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Search for a country below, or choose a task: monitor current conditions, trace a crisis chronology, inspect a bank, or audit a dataset and its source.
Latest readings
computed from the primary sources at the last buildFinObservatory FCI
-0.68
loose, 33rd percentile
19912026Q1
US credit-to-GDP gap
-11.5 pp
Basel III signal: normal
19472025Q4
10y–2y Treasury slope
+0.51 pp
positive
1976Aug 14, 2026
Shiller CAPE
41.4
99th percentile of all months
1881Jul 1, 2026
USD share of FX reserves
57.1%
-14.1 pp since 1999-Q1
19992026-Q1
Baa–10y Treasury spread
+1.67 pp
18th percentile
1986Aug 13, 2026
Financial crisis history
Crisis frequency peaked late in the twentieth centuryexplore the chronology
4,798 banking, currency and sovereign-debt crisis events across 165 economies, 1800–2025, by decade.
BankingCurrencySovereign debt
The current decade is partial because the five source chronologies end in different years.
Latest briefs
all briefs · 6 min
The one series that saw the panic is published two years late
In the quarter Silicon Valley Bank failed, banks drew more from the Fed's discount window than in the whole of the rest of the disclosed record put together. By law, nobody outside the Fed could see it for two years. That is not a scandal. It is the price of the window working at all, and it puts a hard ceiling on what any early-warning system can do.
· 7 min
A banking system does not lose half its capital in a profitable year
In 2024 Bangladesh's banks reported a profit, and reported capital adequacy more than halving. Both cannot describe the same year. The arithmetic says what happened: the losses were already there, and the accounts had not said so.
· 6 min
Every model here is published beside the thing that beats it
FinObservatory runs three predictive models. Each one is scored against the simplest rival that could embarrass it: one ratio, or one variable. Two of the three lose outright. The third wins by so little, against a rival so crude, that the conclusion does not change.
How fresh is the data
full catalog and licencesThe latest observation in each daily-cadence view, queried from the estate itself at build time. A stale estate shows itself here; quarterly and annual sources report the same way on the data page.
FRED conditions series
2026-08-14
FRED
OFR Financial Stress Index
2026-08-12
Office of Financial Research
OFR short-term funding volumes
2026-08-13
Office of Financial Research
ECB CISS (euro-area stress)
2026-08-04
ECB
NY Fed reference rates
2026-08-14
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Treasury par yield curve
2026-08-14
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Cboe VIX index history
2026-08-14
Cboe Global Markets
CFTC futures positioning
2026-08-11
CFTC Commitments of Traders
EIA energy prices and fundamentals
2026-08-11
U.S. Energy Information Administration
FDIC national deposit rates
2026-07-01
FDIC
All modules
72 modules, every one on this listCrises & Sovereign
- Crises Two centuries of crises, five chronologies
- Crisis Patterns What macro data does before a crisis
- Early Warning A banking-crisis logit, scored out of sample against the credit-gap benchmark
- R-Zone Credit and price booms jointly, backtested and live
- Sovereign Debt-to-GDP against crisis-onset benchmarks
- Public Finance US state and local revenue, spending, and municipal debt
- External Debt Who developing countries owe, and on what terms
- Haircuts Creditor losses in restructurings since 1823
- China Lending What borrowers owe China
- External Positions NIIP and external balance-sheet composition
Banking
- Banks A health score for every FDIC-insured bank
- Fragility Unrealized losses against uninsured funding, per bank
- Failure Nowcast Four-quarter failure odds from call-report ratios, walked forward
- Deposit Betas How deposit rates follow the Fed, three hiking cycles
- Holding Companies The FR Y-9C consolidated layer
- Deposits Summary of Deposits by state, county, branch
- Credit Unions Three decades of NCUA call reports
- Systemic LRMES, MES, Delta-CoVaR and the absorption ratio, from equity returns
- Conditions FCI, credit gap, yield curve, stress indices
- Fed Balance Sheet Weekly Federal Reserve assets and liabilities from H.4.1
- Central Banks Five major balance sheets, level and % of GDP
- Funding Repo and money-fund volumes from the OFR monitor
- Money Funds MMF assets by category and holdings, from SEC Form N-MFP
- Fund Flows Open-end fund subscriptions and redemptions, from SEC Form N-PORT
- Advisers Registered investment advisers and reported regulatory assets under management
- Ownership Who owns the lenders, from the GLEIF legal-entity graph
- Enforcement Public supervisory actions, Fed and OCC
- Bangladesh System-level banking soundness, aggregates only
Credit & Markets
- Lending The HMDA loan-level register
- Mortgage Applications, originations and denials from 2007
- Underwriting Approval odds for an observationally identical application, from a logit on HMDA
- Securitization Agency and private-label MBS and ABS outstanding
- Filings As-filed XBRL from SEC data sets
- Rates The Treasury curve and every 2s10s inversion
- Factors Did the Fama-French factors pay?
- Returns Real returns since 1870 in 16 economies
- Valuation CAPE and the ten years that follow it
- Expectations SPF consensus paths and forecast revisions
- Corporate Credit The credit spread record since 1919
- Sector Flow of Funds Quarterly Z.1 sector balance sheets and net lending
- Positioning CFTC futures positioning by trader class
- Institutional Holdings How crowded institutional positions are, from SEC Form 13F
- Commodities EIA energy prices, fuels, US production and inventories
- Derivatives BIS OTC notionals, CDS, and Triennial FX turnover
- Digital Assets CME crypto positioning and the BIS CBDC tracker
- Consumer Seventeen million CFPB complaints, counted
- Consumer Credit G.19 volumes, terms, and bank delinquency rates
- Small Business SBA 7(a) and 504 losses by vintage and by lender
- Housing House prices around banking crises
World
- Reserves COFER currency composition since 1999
- Bank Claims BIS lending read from the creditor side
- Cross-Border Who funds a given country
- Remittances Receipts, corridors, and GDP shares
- Inclusion Findex account ownership and its gaps
- Payments How the world pays, and the wholesale rails
- Insurance Premiums, penetration and solvency worldwide
- Pensions Funded pension assets and the DB to DC shift
- Fincrime FATF lists and OFAC aggregates, verbatim
- Rankings Economies ranked on each country indicator
- Countries One canonical page per country
Wealth & distribution
- Wealth US net worth by group, generation and race
- Inequality Income and wealth concentration across countries
- Redistribution What taxes and transfers do to inequality
- Mobility Whether positions change across generations
Research
- Analyst Citation-first AI over the whole estate
- Research Classic results re-run on the estate
- Briefs Dated, cited analysis notes
- Library Central-banking text corpora, explored
- Data Every dataset, its licence, its source
- Methodology How every figure is computed
- Explore Browse the estate by topic, entity, dataset, or research
- Pro The weekly note and the subscriber workbenches