FinObservatory

Sovereign debt

How indebted is the world, and how indebted were countries when crises began

Government debt to GDP for 195 countries since 1980, the debt level at which 249 past sovereign-debt crises actually began, and where today’s debt sits relative to that history. Debt levels are IMF; crisis dates are the same five chronologies behind the crisis atlas. This page is descriptive. For the predictive question, whether default can be forecast from fundamentals at all, see the sovereign stress test.

195
Countries with debt data
92
Countries with sovereign crises
249
Crisis episodes measured
80.7%
2000+ crisis-start median
45
Above that line now
Defaults now (2024): 84 governments were in external default on $425.01B of debt (current US dollars, excluding domestic arrears), per the Bank of Canada–Bank of England Sovereign Default Database. BoC-BoE CRAG 2025, Bank of Canada terms (attribution).

World median government debt, 1980 onward

The median debt-to-GDP ratio across all countries reporting each series, observed years only (no IMF forecast years). Each line is a different debt perimeter over its own country sample, so levels are not directly comparable across series: general government (IMF GDD) spans 88 countries in 2024, central government 156 countries, and the WEO gross-debt series the widest at 191.

General government (GDD)Central government (GDD)General government (WEO)Private non-financial (GDD)
02040608019501960198020002024PrivateCentralWEO grossGen govt

Source: IMF Global Debt Database (Mbaye, Moreno-Badia & Chae, IMF WP/18/111) | IMF World Economic Outlook Median across reporting countries per year; sample composition changes over time. Methodology

Debt at the start of sovereign crises, by era

For each sovereign-debt crisis episode, the government debt-to-GDP ratio in the year it began. The overall median is 54.4% across 163 episodes with a debt reading, but the level has climbed sharply: crises that began in 2000 onward did so at a median of 80.7%, versus 54.4% across all history. Debt level alone is a weak crisis predictor (see the caveat below); this describes where crises started, it does not forecast where the next will.

0100200300400Pre-1950n = 4860.81950–1979n = 2222.91980–1999n = 6951.52000 onwardn = 2480.7All erasn = 16354.4
Interquartile range (Q1 to Q3), with median2000+ crisis-start median (80.7% of GDP), the elevation benchmark

Source: IMF Global Debt Database (Mbaye, Moreno-Badia & Chae, IMF WP/18/111) | IMF World Economic Outlook | Global Macro Database 2026_06 (Müller, Xu, Lehbib & Chen 2025) | Reinhart-Rogoff via HBS BFFS; Laeven-Valencia (2020) Methodology

Countries above the modern crisis-start line

This is a factual comparison, not a prediction. The 45 countries below have latest general-government debt above 80.7% of GDP, the median level at which sovereign crises of the 2000+ era began. It does not say any of them will have a crisis, is near one, or is safe if below the line. Default risk turns on debt composition (currency, maturity, who holds it), fiscal capacity, credit history, and market access, none of which a single ratio captures. Japan, the largest advanced economy in this table, has never defaulted in the modern era; Argentina defaulted in 2001 at 48.0% of GDP, below every line here.
#CountryDebt/GDPYearAbove line byPast crises
1Sudan272.0%2024+191.32
2Eritrea260.4%2019+179.7none
3Japan236.7%2024+156.01
4Singapore177.0%2024+96.3none
5Venezuela164.3%2024+83.68
6Lebanon164.1%2024+83.4none
7Greece150.9%2024+70.24
8Libya142.7%2017+62.0none
9Italy135.3%2024+54.61
10Bahrain134.0%2024+53.3none
11Maldives133.9%2024+53.3none
12United States120.8%2024+40.11
13Zambia114.9%2024+34.21
14Cape Verde113.7%2024+33.0none
15Senegal113.7%2024+33.02
16France113.1%2024+32.41
17Canada110.8%2024+30.1none
18Bhutan107.8%2024+27.1none
19Belgium104.5%2024+23.8none
20Barbados104.4%2024+23.7none
21Dominica104.3%2024+23.61
22Spain101.8%2024+21.14
23United Kingdom101.3%2024+20.61
24Bolivia100.9%2024+20.23
25Sri Lanka99.4%2024+18.73
26Mozambique96.6%2024+15.92
27Laos96.5%2024+15.8none
28Jordan95.9%2024+15.22
29Republic of the Congo95.4%2024+14.72
30Portugal94.9%2024+14.25
31Zimbabwe94.6%2024+13.92
32St-Vincent92.7%2024+12.0none
33Mauritius91.4%2024+10.7none
34Egypt90.9%2024+10.23
35Ukraine89.8%2024+9.12
36China88.3%2024+7.61
37El Salvador87.6%2024+6.95
38Brazil87.3%2024+6.66
39Suriname87.2%2024+6.5none
40Argentina85.3%2024+4.66
41Tunisia83.1%2024+2.44
42Finland82.5%2024+1.8none
43Guinea-Bissau82.3%2024+1.6none
44India81.3%2024+0.62
45Austria81.2%2024+0.56

Source: IMF Global Debt Database (Mbaye, Moreno-Badia & Chae, IMF WP/18/111) | IMF World Economic Outlook | Global Macro Database 2026_06 (Müller, Xu, Lehbib & Chen 2025) | Reinhart-Rogoff via HBS BFFS; Laeven-Valencia (2020) Benchmark is the 2000+ crisis-start median (80.7%); headline debt is the latest general-government reading via the IMF GDD-general, GDD-central, WEO fallback chain. Methodology

Highest government debt today

Top 15 countries by latest headline general-government debt to GDP. Japan leads at 236.7% yet has had no modern sovereign default: a high ratio held mostly in domestic currency by domestic savers behaves very differently from externally held foreign-currency debt. High debt is a vulnerability, not a verdict.

  1. 1Sudan272.0%
  2. 2Eritrea260.4%
  3. 3Japan236.7%
  4. 4Singapore177.0%
  5. 5Venezuela164.3%
  6. 6Lebanon164.1%
  7. 7Greece150.9%
  8. 8Libya142.7%
  9. 9Italy135.3%
  10. 10Bahrain134.0%
  11. 11Maldives133.9%
  12. 12United States120.8%
  13. 13Zambia114.9%
  14. 14Cape Verde113.7%
  15. 15Senegal113.7%

Source: IMF Global Debt Database (Mbaye, Moreno-Badia & Chae, IMF WP/18/111) | IMF World Economic Outlook Headline is the latest general-government reading; Singapore's ratio reflects gross debt issued for asset-management purposes (SGS/SSGS), not net borrowing. Methodology

Country debt profiles

Every country’s full debt trajectory, crisis history, and where it sits against the crisis-start benchmark. A few to start: GRC, ARG, JPN, USA, ITA, LBN. The headline series label (General govt (IMF GDD), Central govt (IMF GDD), General govt gross (IMF WEO, April 2026 edition)) is shown per country so you always know which perimeter you are reading.