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FinObservatory

Chinese overseas lending / BGR

Bulgaria: debt owed to China

In 2021, Bulgaria is estimated to have owed China $654m, equal to 0.8% of its GDP, which ranks it 76 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $654m in 2021.

$654m
Estimated total, 2021
rank 76 of 126
0.8%
Percent of GDP
2021
$497m
Public and publicly guaranteed
2021
$158m
Private non-guaranteed
24.1% of external

The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021

The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2012, when it rose by $179m.

Public and publicly guaranteedPrivate non-guaranteedPBoC swap drawings

Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Bulgaria, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology

Historical loan records from the 2021 release

These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 3 loan-level records for Bulgaria as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2000 to 2013. Comparable commitments are available for 3 of those loans and sum to $288m. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 0 loans, grace period on 1, maturity on 0, any of the three on 1, and all three together on 0. The earlier file also carries 8 additional project rows for Bulgaria outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.

3
Loans in 2021 sample
2000 to 2013
3
Loans with CommitmentUSD
$288m
1
Loans with any terms
0 with all three
8
Rows outside 2021 sample
11 raw rows total
YearProjectCommitment, USDCommitment, source currencyTermsCreditorType
2013
CDB provides loan to Hareon Alps Holding AG to finance solar power projects
ID: BGR_11 · Source: BU Energy
$248mn/arate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a
China Development Bank (CDB)
State-owned policy bank
Loan
Commercial · borrower Private sector
2001
China Loans Bulgaria USD20M for Budget Support in 2001
ID: BGR_4 · Source: AidData
$20mUSD 20,000,000rate n/a | grace 5y | maturity n/a
People's Bank of China (PBC)
Other official donor / creditor
Loan
loan type n/a · borrower Central government
2000
China Loans Bulgaria USD20M for Budget Support in 2000
ID: BGR_2 · Source: AidData
$20mUSD 20,000,000rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a
Unspecified Chinese government agency
Unspecified Chinese government agency
Loan
loan type n/a · borrower Central government

Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Bulgaria and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology

Against what Bulgaria reports owing to all creditors

No comparison is possible. Bulgaria has no row in the World Bank International Debt Statistics table. There is no reported all-creditor stock to measure the China estimate against, so the ratio is n/a, not zero and not a hundred percent. This is a difference in the scope of the two datasets, not evidence of anything hidden. The two-sources page lists every borrower in this position.