Chinese overseas lending / IRN
Iran: debt owed to China
In 2021, Iran is estimated to have owed China $10.25bn, equal to 2.7% of its GDP, which ranks it 13 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $10.25bn in 2021.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2019, when it rose by $1.76bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Iran, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Iran reports owing to all creditors
Iran reported $10.35bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $332m is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 99.1% of the reported external total and 2972.2% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total. Here the estimate exceeds the reported all-creditor stock, which is logically impossible for a single creditor. Either the reported record is incomplete or the estimate is wrong, and this data cannot say which. See the two-sources page.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $10.25bn | $10.35bn | 99.1% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $9.88bn | $332m | 2972.2% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Iran's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology