Chinese overseas lending / MDA
Moldova: debt owed to China
In 2021, Moldova is estimated to have owed China $0, equal to 0.0% of its GDP, which ranks it 121 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $12m in 2013.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2015, when it fell by $3.68m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Moldova, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
No mapped loan-level row for Moldova is flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in the 2021 hrt_china_loans replication file, so there is no historical project table to show for that release. This does not mean the November 2025 refreshed stock panel lacks supporting records; the two releases use different source universes and cannot be reconciled here. The earlier file still carries 10 project rows mapped to Moldova, but all of them sit outside that release's debt-estimate sample and are excluded here.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Moldova. This earlier loan file is not the source universe used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. Rows outside DebtEstimateSample are not shown. Methodology
Against what Moldova reports owing to all creditors
Moldova reported $9.07bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $1.85bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 0.0% of the reported external total and 0.0% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $0 | $9.07bn | 0.0% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $0 | $1.85bn | 0.0% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Moldova's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology