Chinese overseas lending / MDG
Madagascar: debt owed to China
In 2021, Madagascar is estimated to have owed China $329m, equal to 2.3% of its GDP, which ranks it 87 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $329m in 2021.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2021, when it rose by $91m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Madagascar, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 3 loan-level records for Madagascar as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2007 to 2017. Comparable commitments are available for 3 of those loans and sum to $159m. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 0 loans, grace period on 1, maturity on 2, any of the three on 2, and all three together on 0. The earlier file also carries 26 additional project rows for Madagascar outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Ivato Airport - Antananarivo Boulevard de l'Europe Expressway; 18.7km ID: MDG_29 · Source: JH CARI | $105m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2008 | Multisectoral Projects ID: MDG_21 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $4.00m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2007 | Antananarivo; The Golden Peacock Five-Star Hotel ID: MDG_16 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $50m | n/a | rate n/a | grace 8y | maturity 21y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Madagascar and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Madagascar reports owing to all creditors
Madagascar reported $5.34bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $3.72bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 6.2% of the reported external total and 8.8% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $329m | $5.34bn | 6.2% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $327m | $3.72bn | 8.8% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Madagascar's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology