Chinese overseas lending / MDV
Maldives: debt owed to China
In 2021, Maldives is estimated to have owed China $1.41bn, equal to 26.8% of its GDP, which ranks it 54 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $1.41bn in 2021.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2017, when it rose by $388m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Maldives, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 8 loan-level records for Maldives as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2010 to 2017. Comparable commitments are available for 8 of those loans and sum to $1.40bn. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 0 loans, grace period on 0, maturity on 0, any of the three on 0, and all three together on 0. The earlier file also carries 30 additional project rows for Maldives outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 7000 Housing Units ID: MDV_38 · Source: Maldives DMO | $369m | USD 368,900,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2016 | 1530 Housing Units ID: MDV_34 · Source: Maldives DMO | $159m | USD 159,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2016 | Irufen Island Resort ID: MDV_36 · Source: Maldives DMO | $128m | USD 127,500,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Private sector |
| 2016 | 5th Power Development ID: MDV_35 · Source: Maldives DMO | $75m | USD 75,395,224 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower SOE |
| 2016 | Maldives-China Friendship Bridge ID: MDV_37 · Source: Maldives DMO | $69m | RMB 455,600,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2015 | Expansion and Upgrading of Ibrahim Nasir International Airport in Hulhule ID: MDV_33 · Source: Maldives DMO | $374m | USD 373,838,496 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | 982.5 CNY million loan for 1500-unit housing project in Addu ID: MDV_16 · Source: Maldives DMO | $156m | RMB 982,500,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | 481 million RMB loan for 1,000-unit housing development in Hulhumale ID: MDV_13 · Source: Maldives DMO | $71m | RMB 481,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Maldives and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Maldives reports owing to all creditors
Maldives reported $4.10bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $3.13bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 34.3% of the reported external total and 44.9% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $1.41bn | $4.10bn | 34.3% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $1.41bn | $3.13bn | 44.9% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Maldives's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Maldives
1 deal recorded between Maldives and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
China grants a 4-year debt service deferral on 600 mn in outstanding debt.
Kratz et al. (2020)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Maldives and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology