Chinese overseas lending / PNG
Papua New Guinea: debt owed to China
In 2021, Papua New Guinea is estimated to have owed China $2.31bn, equal to 8.9% of its GDP, which ranks it 40 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $2.80bn in 2014.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2011, when it rose by $618m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Papua New Guinea, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 12 loan-level records for Papua New Guinea as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2000 to 2017. Comparable commitments are available for 11 of those loans and sum to $953m. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 0 loans, grace period on 0, maturity on 0, any of the three on 0, and all three together on 0. The earlier file also carries 56 additional project rows for Papua New Guinea outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Integrated Agriculture Industrial Parks in Western Highlands and Eastern Highlands ID: PNG_66 · Source: Lowy Institute | $330m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2017 | National Broadband Network ID: PNG_67 · Source: Lowy Institute | $51m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2017 | Goroka Town Water Supply ID: PNG_65 · Source: Lowy Institute | $32m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2017 | Telikom (PNG) Limited ID: PNG_68 · Source: Lowy Institute | $1.53m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | New Enga Provincial Hospital ID: PNG_64 · Source: Lowy Institute | $163m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Kokopo Town Sewerage ID: PNG_63 · Source: Lowy Institute | $8.00m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | Port Moresby City Road Project ID: PNG_59 · Source: Lowy Institute | $123m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | Community College ID: PNG_56 · Source: Lowy Institute | $35m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | China Exim Bank provides $55m concessional loan for Integrated Government Information System ID: PNG_46 · Source: AidData, Lowy Institute | $55m | USD 55,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | China Exim Bank provides loan to Papua New Guinea for construction of marine industrial zone ID: PNG_42 · Source: AidData, Lowy Institute | $150m | USD 150,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2005 | China aids the construction of the baba lilly road in PNG ID: PNG_26 · Source: AidData | n/a | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2000 | China loans $5 million to Papua New Guinea to support currency ID: PNG_8 · Source: AidData | $5.00m | USD 5,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Papua New Guinea and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Papua New Guinea reports owing to all creditors
Papua New Guinea reported $19.71bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $6.05bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 11.7% of the reported external total and 18.8% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $2.31bn | $19.71bn | 11.7% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $1.14bn | $6.05bn | 18.8% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Papua New Guinea's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology