Chinese overseas lending / VUT
Vanuatu: debt owed to China
In 2021, Vanuatu is estimated to have owed China $168m, equal to 17.1% of its GDP, which ranks it 98 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $168m in 2021.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2015, when it rose by $35m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Vanuatu, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 5 loan-level records for Vanuatu as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2004 to 2013. Comparable commitments are available for 5 of those loans and sum to $192m. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 5 loans, grace period on 4, maturity on 4, any of the three on 5, and all three together on 4. The earlier file also carries 28 additional project rows for Vanuatu outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | China provides $87 mil loan for the design, rehabilitation and extension of Luganville Wharf ID: VUT_27 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $87m | RMB 541,900,000 | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | Vanuatu Road Rehabilitation Project ID: VUT_20 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $57m | RMB 350,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 5y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2008 | China EXIM bank gives $30mil concessional loan to Vanuatu to establish e-government communication system ID: VUT_14 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $29m | RMB 200,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 5y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2007 | China provides preferential buyer's credit to Vanuatu to purchase 2 Y-12 Aircraft ID: VUT_12 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $9.78m | USD 9,780,000 | rate 2% | grace 5y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2004 | China loaned Vanuatu $10 million for construction of law school ID: VUT_7 · Source: AidData | $10m | USD 10,000,000 | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Vanuatu and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Vanuatu reports owing to all creditors
Vanuatu reported $477m of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $374m is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 35.2% of the reported external total and 44.9% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $168m | $477m | 35.2% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $168m | $374m | 44.9% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Vanuatu's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Vanuatu
1 deal recorded between Vanuatu and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
Payment deferral. It is unknown whether the entire portfolio was treated or just a single loan. No details are known on financial terms.
AidData 2.0, Kratz et al. (2020)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Vanuatu and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology