Expectations
Read the consensus path, then read the revisions
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's quarterly panel of professional macro forecasts. This page reports the median point forecasts only, never a blend of mean and median, and never a house forecast. The local SPF parquet in this worktree runs from 1968Q4 to 2026Q2; the latest official SPF release on the Philadelphia Fed site is 2026Q3, published on August 14, 2026, so this route is explicit that it is showing the on-disk 2026Q2 vintage.
Data as of SPF point forecasts through 2026Q2 in this repo; latest official Philadelphia Fed release is 2026Q3 (August 14, 2026)
2 because SPF horizon 1 is the prior quarter's preliminary value, not a forward quarter. Mean versus median is always a deliberate choice and is surfaced above, not mixed silently.Latest SPF path
2026Q2 quarterly path and calendar-year averages
Five headline SPF variables from the latest loaded survey: the current-quarter nowcast, the next four quarterly horizons, and the current and next two calendar-year averages where the survey carries them.
| Variable | Nowcast | Q+1 | Q+2 | Q+3 | Q+4 | CY | CY+1 | CY+2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP RGDP | bn real $ | 24,301 | 24,435 | 24,530 | 24,648 | 24,765 | 24,363 | 24,822 | 25,363 |
CPI inflation CPI | % | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
Core PCE inflation COREPCE | % | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
Unemployment rate UNEMP | % | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
10-year Treasury TBOND | % | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
Revisions
What changed versus 2026Q1
The revision table isolates three cuts of the same survey path: the current-quarter nowcast, the four-quarters-ahead read, and the next calendar-year average. A positive number means the 2026Q2 consensus moved up versus 2026Q1; a negative number means it moved down.
| Variable | Nowcast revision | 4-quarter-ahead revision | Next calendar year revision |
|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP RGDP | +31 bn real $ 24,301 from 24,270 | −25 bn real $ 24,765 from 24,790 | −163 bn real $ 24,822 from 24,985 |
CPI inflation CPI | +3.3 % 6.0 from 2.7 | −0.0 % 2.4 from 2.4 | +0.0 % 2.5 from 2.5 |
Core PCE inflation COREPCE | +0.5 % 3.4 from 2.9 | +0.0 % 2.4 from 2.4 | +0.1 % 2.4 from 2.3 |
Unemployment rate UNEMP | −0.0 % 4.4 from 4.4 | +0.0 % 4.5 from 4.4 | +0.1 % 4.5 from 4.4 |
10-year Treasury TBOND | +0.2 % 4.3 from 4.1 | +0.2 % 4.2 from 4.0 | +0.2 % 4.2 from 4.0 |
Vintage chart
The unemployment misses are visible survey by survey, not hidden in one backtest line
Every thin path is one median SPF unemployment-rate forecast from 2019Q1 through 2025Q2, plotted from the survey quarter through four quarters ahead. The black line is the realized quarterly average unemployment rate from UNRATE, carried through 2026Q2. This is the most useful SPF exhibit because it shows both revision and error at once: which vintages saw the labor market softening, which did not, and how late the consensus turned.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters | Federal Reserve Economic Data, UNRATE Observed unemployment is the quarterly average of monthly UNRATE. Vintages shown are 2019Q1 through 2025Q2 so each four-quarter-ahead path has a realized outcome inside the local data span. Methodology