Rankings / Credit cycle (BIS)
Credit-to-GDP gap
pp (actual minus HP trend)
43 economies, each at its own latest reading (2025), ranked highest first. Median -14.4. For this indicator lower is safer; a high rank is not a good one.
A fixed BIS reporting set of roughly 44 advanced and major emerging economies, not the whole world; property prices reach further. Source: BIS credit, debt-service and property statistics. Construction: country methodology.
| # | Economy | pp (actual minus HP trend) | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saudi Arabia SAU | 6.99 | 2025 |
| 2 | Japan JPN | 6.78 | 2025 |
| 3 | Argentina ARG | 4.96 | 2025 |
| 4 | Israel ISR | 3.60 | 2025 |
| 5 | Brazil BRA | 1.79 | 2025 |
| 6 | India IND | 1.74 | 2025 |
| 7 | Indonesia IDN | -0.55 | 2025 |
| 8 | Mexico MEX | -2.95 | 2025 |
| 9 | Malaysia MYS | -3.48 | 2025 |
| 10 | Germany DEU | -3.96 | 2025 |
| 11 | Czech Republic CZE | -4.06 | 2025 |
| 12 | South Africa ZAF | -5.17 | 2025 |
| 13 | Russian Federation RUS | -6.42 | 2025 |
| 14 | Hungary HUN | -7.25 | 2025 |
| 15 | China CHN | -7.69 | 2025 |
| 16 | New Zealand NZL | -7.72 | 2025 |
| 17 | South Korea KOR | -8.01 | 2025 |
| 18 | Colombia COL | -8.51 | 2025 |
| 19 | Australia AUS | -9.93 | 2025 |
| 20 | United States USA | -11.5 | 2025 |
| 21 | Norway NOR | -13.6 | 2025 |
| 22 | Italy ITA | -14.4 | 2025 |
| 23 | France FRA | -15.1 | 2025 |
| 24 | Canada CAN | -15.3 | 2025 |
| 25 | Thailand THA | -16.1 | 2025 |
| 26 | Austria AUT | -16.7 | 2025 |
| 27 | Poland POL | -16.8 | 2025 |
| 28 | Switzerland CHE | -17.0 | 2025 |
| 29 | United Kingdom GBR | -17.8 | 2025 |
| 30 | Finland FIN | -18.0 | 2025 |
| 31 | Denmark DNK | -18.4 | 2025 |
| 32 | Greece GRC | -18.6 | 2025 |
| 33 | Singapore SGP | -19.8 | 2025 |
| 34 | Chile CHL | -22.1 | 2025 |
| 35 | Spain ESP | -26.8 | 2025 |
| 36 | Turkey TUR | -26.9 | 2025 |
| 37 | Portugal PRT | -27.0 | 2025 |
| 38 | Belgium BEL | -30.6 | 2025 |
| 39 | Sweden SWE | -38.5 | 2025 |
| 40 | Netherlands NLD | -52.5 | 2025 |
| 41 | Hong Kong HKG | -57.3 | 2025 |
| 42 | Luxembourg LUX | -69.5 | 2025 |
| 43 | Ireland IRL | -82.1 | 2025 |
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