Chinese overseas lending / BRA
Brazil: debt owed to China
In 2021, Brazil is estimated to have owed China $18.53bn, equal to 1.1% of its GDP, which ranks it 5 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $23.30bn in 2019.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2018, when it rose by $4.54bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Brazil, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 15 loan-level records for Brazil as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2005 to 2017. Comparable commitments are available for 15 of those loans and sum to $27.47bn. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 2 loans, grace period on 1, maturity on 3, any of the three on 3, and all three together on 1. The earlier file also carries 9 additional project rows for Brazil outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Preferential Supply Contract with Unipec Asia Company ID: BRA_24 · Source: BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $5.00bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2016 | Supply Contract with CNUOC, Zhenhua and CNPC ID: BRA_23 · Source: BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $5.00bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2016 | China-Brazil trade financing ID: BRA_22 · Source: Inter-American Dialogue | $300m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower SOE |
| 2015 | Bilateral Cooperation Agreement ID: BRA_18 · Source: BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $3.50bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2015 | Bilateral Cooperation Agreement ID: BRA_19 · Source: BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $1.50bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2015 | Sale of E-195 Aircrafts ID: BRA_20 · Source: Inter-American Dialogue | $1.30bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower SOE |
| 2015 | Soy Processing Industrial Line ID: BRA_21 · Source: Inter-American Dialogue | $1.21bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | Bilateral Cooperation Agreement ID: BRA_17 · Source: BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $3.00bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2012 | CDB provides 500 mn USD loan to Brazilian telecom company Telemar ID: BRA_14 · Source: AidData, Inter-American Dialogue | $500m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Private sector |
| 2010 | China Development Bank extends $3.5 billion USD loan to Petrobras from $5 billion line of credit ID: BRA_8 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $3.50bn | USD 3,500,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2010 | $1.23 bln Joint China Exim Bank and Bank of China Loan for Shipbuilding in Brazil ID: BRA_7 · Source: AidData, Inter-American Dialogue | $1.23bn | USD 1,230,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity 13y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im), Bank of China (BOC) Multiple commercial creditors | Loan Commercial · borrower Private sector |
| 2009 | China Development Bank Loans Brazilian Telecom Company Oi USD300M for Network Expansion ID: BRA_6 · Source: AidData, Inter-American Dialogue | $300m | USD 300,000,000 | rate 1.13% | grace 2y | maturity 7y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Private sector |
| 2008 | CDB loans $750 million USD for GASCAC Pipeline ID: BRA_4 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $750m | USD 750,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2007 | CDB finances Presidente Medici Candiota Power Station ID: BRA_3 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $281m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2005 | ICBC provides loan to Brazilian company Acominas for steel mill equipment ID: BRA_1 · Source: AidData, Inter-American Dialogue | $101m | USD 100,500,000 | rate 5.95% | grace n/a | maturity 12y | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Private sector |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Brazil and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Brazil reports owing to all creditors
Brazil reported $571.19bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $193.85bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 3.2% of the reported external total and 8.1% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $18.53bn | $571.19bn | 3.2% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $15.78bn | $193.85bn | 8.1% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Brazil's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology