Chinese overseas lending / ZMB
Zambia: debt owed to China
In 2021, Zambia is estimated to have owed China $6.09bn, equal to 27.5% of its GDP, which ranks it 23 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $6.09bn in 2021.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2018, when it rose by $1.13bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Zambia, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 55 loan-level records for Zambia as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2002 to 2017. Comparable commitments are available for 55 of those loans and sum to $6.73bn. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 21 loans, grace period on 14, maturity on 18, any of the three on 26, and all three together on 11. The earlier file also carries 59 additional project rows for Zambia outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Communication Towers Project ID: ZMB_108 · Source: JH CARI | $280m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2017 | Zambian Military Personnel Homes - 2;000 Units ID: ZMB_114 · Source: JH CARI | $150m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2017 | 300km Kabwe - Pensulo Second Transmission Line; 330kV ID: ZMB_107 · Source: BU Energy, JH CARI | $114m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower SOE |
| 2017 | Connection of Lundazi and Chama to the National Grid ID: ZMB_109 · Source: JH CARI | $37m | n/a | rate 4.8% | grace 3y | maturity 15y | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2017 | Luapula; Musonda Falls Hydropower Plant Rehabilitation and Upgrading; 10MW ID: ZMB_111 · Source: JH CARI | $35m | n/a | rate 4.8% | grace 3y | maturity 18y | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2016 | Ndola International Airport Phase I; Greenfield Project ID: ZMB_102 · Source: JH CARI | $338m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Kafulafuta Reservoir Dam Water Supply Project ID: ZMB_95 · Source: JH CARI | $332m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity 15y | Bank of China (BOC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Lusaka Urban Road Rehabilitation Phase II (L400 Phase II) ID: ZMB_96 · Source: JH CARI | $313m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Police and Security Force Housing - 2350 Units ID: ZMB_104 · Source: JH CARI | $275m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China International Trust and Investment Corporation (CITIC), Bank of Jiangsu Multiple commercial creditors | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Public Security Network III ID: ZMB_105 · Source: JH CARI | $179m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Nkana Water and Sanitation ID: ZMB_103 · Source: JH CARI | $170m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Solar-powered Milling Plant ID: ZMB_106 · Source: JH CARI | $170m | n/a | rate 4.5% | grace n/a | maturity 12y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Chinsali General Hospital Project ID: ZMB_94 · Source: JH CARI | $136m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Lusaka-Kafue Bulk Water Supply ID: ZMB_97 · Source: JH CARI | $128m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Ndola City Roads Construction and Upgrade; 42.9km ID: ZMB_101 · Source: JH CARI | $50m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Poly Technologies State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Mansa to Luwingu Road; 175km Additional Loan ID: ZMB_98 · Source: JH CARI | $30m | n/a | rate 5.5% | grace 3y | maturity 10y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Mpika Power Supply ID: ZMB_99 · Source: JH CARI | $30m | n/a | rate 4.4% | grace 3y | maturity 18y | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2016 | Musonda Falls Upgrade Bridge; Loan 1 ID: ZMB_100 · Source: JH CARI | $29m | n/a | rate 7% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Sinohydro Corporation (Sinohydro) State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2015 | Purchase of 6 L-15 Trainer Jets ID: ZMB_90 · Source: JH CARI | $211m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation (CATIC) State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2015 | Security Equipment for Police; the Immigration Department; Prisons and the Drug Enforcement Commission ID: ZMB_91 · Source: JH CARI | $164m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Poly Technologies State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2015 | China Ex-Im Bank finances second and third phases of the country's digital braodcasting migration project ID: ZMB_86 · Source: JH CARI | $93m | n/a | rate n/a | grace 5y | maturity 25y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower SPV |
| 2015 | Smart Zambian National ICT Development Project Phase I ID: ZMB_92 · Source: JH CARI | $66m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2015 | Earth-moving Machinery for Road Repairs/Contruction Purchase; Phase II ID: ZMB_87 · Source: JH CARI | $50m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2015 | Maamba Coal Power Plant Phase I (3x150=450MW) - BoC portion ID: ZMB_88 · Source: JH CARI | $32m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Bank of China (BOC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SPV |
| 2015 | Maamba Coal Power Plant Phase I (3x150=450MW) - ICBC portion ID: ZMB_89 · Source: JH CARI | $32m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SPV |
| 2015 | CDB provides 30 mn USD loan for SMEs ID: ZMB_85 · Source: JH CARI | $30m | n/a | rate 5.5% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | China commits loan for upgrade of the Kenneth Kaunda International Airport ID: ZMB_79 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $360m | USD 360,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 5y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | ZTE Take-over of Libya Lap Green's loans to Zambtel ID: ZMB_84 · Source: JH CARI | $103m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Zhongxing Telecommunication Equipment Corporation (ZTE) State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | China Exim Bank commits to loan 41M USD for the construction of a power transmission line in Zambia ID: ZMB_78 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, JH CARI | $41m | USD 41,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower SOE |
| 2013 | China loans USD300M for Zambia L400 road ID: ZMB_74 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $296m | USD 296,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | Mbala to Nakonde Road; 172km ID: ZMB_76 · Source: JH CARI | $196m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | Lusiwasi Lower Hydropower Expansion Project & Lunzua Hydropower Rehabilitation Project 86MW ID: ZMB_75 · Source: BU Energy, JH CARI | $183m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower SOE |
| 2012 | CDB loans $179.5 million USD for Mansa-Luwingu Road ID: ZMB_68 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $176m | USD 175,900,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | Purchase of 8 K-8P Fighter Jet Trainers ID: ZMB_71 · Source: JH CARI | $67m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China National Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation (CATIC) State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | TAZARA 15th Protocol - Purchase of Locomotives ID: ZMB_72 · Source: JH CARI | $43m | n/a | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | 685km; Pensulo to Kasama and Pensulo to Chipata Transmission Lines; 330 kV ID: ZMB_63 · Source: JH CARI | $285m | n/a | rate 3% | grace 5y | maturity 15y | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2011 | Mongu-Tapo Section; Mongu Kalabo Road; 34km ID: ZMB_67 · Source: JH CARI | $244m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | China Exim Bank loans Zambia 86 million USD to construct Heroes National Stadium in Lusaka ID: ZMB_64 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $86m | USD 86,000,000 | rate n/a | grace 10y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | Military Residential Housing Unit ID: ZMB_59 · Source: JH CARI | $336m | n/a | rate n/a | grace 5y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | Six Z-9 Helicopters ID: ZMB_61 · Source: JH CARI | $105m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | China gives Zambia 361 million RMB Concessional Loan for mobile hospitals ID: ZMB_56 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $53m | RMB 361,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | TAZARA 14th Protocol - Engine and Wagon Purchase ID: ZMB_62 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $39m | n/a | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | Bank of China loans $37 million for Zambian ZESCO fibre-optic lines Phase II ID: ZMB_54 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $37m | USD 37,000,000 | rate 3.2% | grace 2y | maturity 10y | Bank of China (BOC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2010 | Independence Stadium Western Grandstand Rehabilitation ID: ZMB_58 · Source: JH CARI | $8.00m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | Optic Fibre Cable Phase I ID: ZMB_60 · Source: JH CARI | $8.00m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China International Trust and Investment Corporation (CITIC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2009 | Levy Mwanawasa Stadium in Ndola ID: ZMB_50 · Source: JH CARI | $68m | n/a | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | Loan for purchase of non-intrusive scanners ID: ZMB_52 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $46m | USD 45,800,000 | rate 2% | grace 5y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | China extends Zambia additional loans for government complex ID: ZMB_49 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $25m | USD 25,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 5y | maturity 10y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | TAZARA Protocol - 2009 Recapitalization ID: ZMB_53 · Source: JH CARI | $19m | n/a | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | Loan for constructing, rehabilitating, and maintaining storage sheds ID: ZMB_51 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $12m | USD 11,600,000 | rate 2% | grace 5y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2007 | Exim Bank funds Lake Kariba North Bank Power Plant Expansion ID: ZMB_46 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, JH CARI | $316m | USD 316,000,000 | rate 2% | grace n/a | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower SPV |
| 2007 | China gives Zambia 39 million dollars loan for floods disaster ID: ZMB_45 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $40m | USD 39,899,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2006 | MA-60 Airliners Aircrafts Purchase - 2 Units; Y-12 Cargo Planes Purchase - 12 Units ID: ZMB_41 · Source: JH CARI | $56m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2006 | TAZARA Equipment and Machinery ID: ZMB_42 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $5.00m | n/a | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
| 2002 | Kamwala Government Complex in Lusaka Completion ID: ZMB_23 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $8.00m | n/a | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Zambia and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Zambia reports owing to all creditors
Zambia reported $26.94bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $15.26bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 22.6% of the reported external total and 37.8% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $6.09bn | $26.94bn | 22.6% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $5.77bn | $15.26bn | 37.8% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Zambia's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Zambia
1 deal recorded between Zambia and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Development Bank
In 2020, China Development Bank rescheduled debt with the Government of Zambia. The agreement defered principal and interest payments falling due in 2020. Deferred interest is payable in April 2021 and deferred principal is to be repaid within the existing maturities.
Acker et al. (2021)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Zambia and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology