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FinObservatory

Sovereign haircuts / JPN

Japan

One concluded restructuring, settled in 1952. It cost creditors 26.8% of the present value of their claim, 11 years after the default that began in 1941.

1
Restructurings
26.8%
Median present-value haircut
26.8%
Worst present-value haircut
0 of 1
Cut face value by zero
$1.30B
Debt treated (2020 $)

Every restructuring

Two measures of the same deals, never combined. The present-value haircut discounts what creditors got against what they were owed; the face-value reduction counts only principal written off.

0204060801001952Year the restructuring concluded
Present-value haircutFace-value reduction
DefaultSettledYears to settlePresent-value haircutFace-value reductionDebt treated (2020 $)Source
194119521126.8%0.2%$1.30BMeyer, Reinhart and Trebesch (2022)

Source: Meyer, Reinhart & Trebesch (2022), Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo | Cruces & Trebesch (2013), Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts | Asonuma & Trebesch (2016) Debt treated is the amount restructured, deflated to constant 2020 US dollars in the source file. A negative haircut means the new instruments were worth more than the old claim. Methodology

Bond prices

1 of 1 Japan restructuring episode has Waterloo prices during the restructuring interval

The haircut file dates episodes by year. Waterloo matches them by country code and plots a padded window from one year before default through one year after settlement.
The public Waterloo bond panel in this repo runs from Jan 1, 1822 to Dec 1, 1980. This selector uses price only, never pbid or pask, and shows one line per bond from one year before default to one year after settlement. The author README defines price as “bond price in GBP and USD”; it does not document normalization to face value. Across all 329 haircut episodes, 111 have no Waterloo country-code match and 177 start after Dec 1, 1980. Those two counts overlap.
Selected episode: default 1941, settled 1952, case 3, spell JPN_1941-1952. Window: Jan 1, 1940 to Dec 31, 1953.
GBP bond prices
Independent GBP y-axis; values are not scaled against another currency.
05010015020019401945195019534% Bonds of 1910, due 1970 (GBP): 168 monthly observations from Jan 1, 1940 to Dec 1, 19535% Bonds of 1907, due 1947 (GBP): 168 monthly observations from Jan 1, 1940 to Dec 1, 19536% Bonds of 1924, due 1959 (GBP): 168 monthly observations from Jan 1, 1940 to Dec 1, 19534% Sterling Loan of 1899, due 1954 (GBP): 155 monthly observations from Jan 1, 1940 to Nov 1, 19525.5% Sterling Conversion Bonds of 1930, due 1965 (GBP): 137 monthly observations from Jan 1, 1940 to Nov 1, 19525.5% Sterling Conversion Bonds of 1930, due 1965 (GBP), Dec 1, 1947: 425.5% Loan of 1926, due 1961 (Tokyo) (GBP): 128 monthly observations from Jan 1, 1940 to Nov 1, 19505.5% Loan of 1926, due 1961 (Tokyo) (GBP), Dec 1, 1947: 29.55% Railway Bonds of 1923, due 1948 (GBP): 100 monthly observations from Sep 1, 1945 to Dec 1, 19535.5% Gold Bonds of 1930, due 1965 (assented) (GBP): 75 monthly observations from Jul 1, 1945 to Dec 1, 19535.5% Gold Bonds of 1930, due 1965 (assented) (GBP), Dec 1, 1947: 414% Bonds of 1910, due 1970 (assented) (GBP): 13 monthly observations from Dec 1, 1952 to Dec 1, 19534% Loan of 1899, due 1964 (1954) (assented) (GBP): 13 monthly observations from Dec 1, 1952 to Dec 1, 19535% Bonds of 1907, due 1947 (assented) (GBP): 13 monthly observations from Dec 1, 1952 to Dec 1, 19536% Gold Bonds of 1924, due 1969 (1959) (assented) (GBP): 13 monthly observations from Dec 1, 1952 to Dec 1, 19535.5% Loan of 1926, due 1961 (Tokyo) (assented) (GBP): 12 monthly observations from Jan 1, 1953 to Dec 1, 19535% Railway Bonds of 1923, due 1948 (assented) (GBP): 12 monthly observations from Jan 1, 1953 to Dec 1, 1953Observation monthBond price (GBP)
Bond legend (GBP)
4% Bonds of 1910, due 1970 (GBP)
5% Bonds of 1907, due 1947 (GBP)
6% Bonds of 1924, due 1959 (GBP)
4% Sterling Loan of 1899, due 1954 (GBP)
5.5% Sterling Conversion Bonds of 1930, due 1965 (GBP)
5.5% Loan of 1926, due 1961 (Tokyo) (GBP)
5% Railway Bonds of 1923, due 1948 (GBP)
5.5% Gold Bonds of 1930, due 1965 (assented) (GBP)
4% Bonds of 1910, due 1970 (assented) (GBP)
4% Loan of 1899, due 1964 (1954) (assented) (GBP)
5% Bonds of 1907, due 1947 (assented) (GBP)
6% Gold Bonds of 1924, due 1969 (1959) (assented) (GBP)
5.5% Loan of 1926, due 1961 (Tokyo) (assented) (GBP)
5% Railway Bonds of 1923, due 1948 (assented) (GBP)
USD bond prices
Independent USD y-axis; values are not scaled against another currency.
05010015019401945195019535.5% USD Gold Bonds of 1930, due 1965 (USD): 62 monthly observations from Jan 1, 1940 to Dec 1, 19536.5% USD Gold Bonds of 1924, due 1954 (USD): 49 monthly observations from Jan 1, 1940 to Dec 1, 19526.5% USD Gold Bonds of 1924, due 1964 (assented) (USD): 12 monthly observations from Jan 1, 1953 to Dec 1, 1953Observation monthBond price (USD)
Bond legend (USD)
5.5% USD Gold Bonds of 1930, due 1965 (USD)
6.5% USD Gold Bonds of 1924, due 1954 (USD)
6.5% USD Gold Bonds of 1924, due 1964 (assented) (USD)
1,298 monthly observations across 17 bonds. 1,046 of those observations fall inside the shaded restructuring interval. Earliest point in this window: Jan 1, 1940. Latest: Dec 1, 1953. One line equals one bond; no cross-bond average is computed.
BondCurrencyISINObs.FirstLast
4% Bonds of 1910, due 1970GBPnot recorded168Jan 1, 1940Dec 1, 1953
5% Bonds of 1907, due 1947GBPnot recorded168Jan 1, 1940Dec 1, 1953
6% Bonds of 1924, due 1959GBPnot recorded168Jan 1, 1940Dec 1, 1953
4% Sterling Loan of 1899, due 1954GBPnot recorded155Jan 1, 1940Nov 1, 1952
5.5% Sterling Conversion Bonds of 1930, due 1965GBPnot recorded137Jan 1, 1940Nov 1, 1952
5.5% Loan of 1926, due 1961 (Tokyo)GBPnot recorded128Jan 1, 1940Nov 1, 1950
5% Railway Bonds of 1923, due 1948GBPnot recorded100Sep 1, 1945Dec 1, 1953
5.5% Gold Bonds of 1930, due 1965 (assented)GBPnot recorded75Jul 1, 1945Dec 1, 1953
4% Bonds of 1910, due 1970 (assented)GBPnot recorded13Dec 1, 1952Dec 1, 1953
4% Loan of 1899, due 1964 (1954) (assented)GBPnot recorded13Dec 1, 1952Dec 1, 1953
5% Bonds of 1907, due 1947 (assented)GBPnot recorded13Dec 1, 1952Dec 1, 1953
6% Gold Bonds of 1924, due 1969 (1959) (assented)GBPnot recorded13Dec 1, 1952Dec 1, 1953
5.5% Loan of 1926, due 1961 (Tokyo) (assented)GBPnot recorded12Jan 1, 1953Dec 1, 1953
5% Railway Bonds of 1923, due 1948 (assented)GBPnot recorded12Jan 1, 1953Dec 1, 1953
5.5% USD Gold Bonds of 1930, due 1965USDnot recorded62Jan 1, 1940Dec 1, 1953
6.5% USD Gold Bonds of 1924, due 1954USDnot recorded49Jan 1, 1940Dec 1, 1952
6.5% USD Gold Bonds of 1924, due 1964 (assented)USDnot recorded12Jan 1, 1953Dec 1, 1953
Each option includes its case id and default-spell id. The chart includes every priced bond for that country in the window, so it does not identify bonds belonging to the selected restructuring. The one-year padding is a display window, one year either side; an editorial choice rather than a source-defined threshold. It uses waterloo_bonds.price only; pbid and pask are not averaged into it. The author README defines price as “bond price in GBP and USD” and does not document face-value normalization. GBP and USD observations use separate labelled panels and y-axes. Of the 329 episodes in the haircut file, 111 have no Waterloo country-code match and 177 start after 1980-12-01; these counts overlap. Later episodes show an absence message rather than an implied zero.

Source: Meyer, Reinhart & Trebesch, Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo (bond-price panel) | Harvard Dataverse, Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo Methodology

Default spells

SpellFromToYearsRestructurings
JPN_1941-195219411952121

Source: Meyer, Reinhart & Trebesch (2022), Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo | Cruces & Trebesch (2013), Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts | Asonuma & Trebesch (2016) Duration counts both endpoints. The spells table also carries a cumulative-haircut column; it is not published here because it does not reconcile with the per-episode haircuts, see the methodology. Methodology

Debt still in default

The Bank of Canada-Bank of England default database records no debt in default for Japan in its latest year.

Source: Bank of Canada-Bank of England Sovereign Default Database (CRAG) Bank of Canada terms (attribution). Includes domestic arrears, so it is not comparable with the debt-treated column above. Methodology

Methodology, the measures, and what this data cannot tell you