Chinese overseas lending / KEN
Kenya: debt owed to China
In 2021, Kenya is estimated to have owed China $8.60bn, equal to 7.8% of its GDP, which ranks it 18 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $8.65bn in 2020.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2017, when it rose by $1.27bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Kenya, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 33 loan-level records for Kenya as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2001 to 2017. Comparable commitments are available for 33 of those loans and sum to $8.26bn. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 18 loans, grace period on 14, maturity on 17, any of the three on 20, and all three together on 14. The earlier file also carries 61 additional project rows for Kenya outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Garissa-based 55MW solar farm ID: KEN_91 · Source: BU Energy, JH CARI | $136m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2017 | Nairobi Power Distribution Network ID: KEN_94 · Source: JH CARI | $130m | n/a | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2017 | Kenya Nationwide Airborne Geophysical Survey ID: KEN_93 · Source: JH CARI | $68m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | 151 Multisector Infrastructure Projects ID: KEN_89 · Source: JH CARI | $600m | n/a | rate 6% | grace n/a | maturity 7y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central bank |
| 2016 | Kibwezi-Mutomo-Kitui-Migwani Road Upgrade; 472km; Phase I ID: KEN_90 · Source: JH CARI | $225m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2015 | Standard Gauge Railway ID: KEN_88 · Source: JH CARI | $1.50bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2015 | SMEs ID: KEN_87 · Source: JH CARI | $143m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central bank |
| 2014 | SGR Phase I - Mombasa to Nairobi 472.3km (CommL portion; total 3.6bn) ID: KEN_86 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $2.00bn | USD 2,003,600,000 | rate 3.7% | grace 5y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | China EXIM Provides USD 1.6 Preferential Credits for Nairobi-Mombasa Railway Section ID: KEN_78 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $1.60bn | USD 1,600,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | Nairobi 132KV and 66KV Network Upgrade and Reinforcement ID: KEN_85 · Source: JH CARI | $130m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | Magnetic Resonance Imaging Equipment Purchase - 20 Units ID: KEN_84 · Source: BU Energy, JH CARI | $27m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | China pledges to do Geothermal power project in Kenya ID: KEN_73 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $95m | USD 95,400,000 | rate 2% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | ICBC funds $80 million of debt-refinancing package for Kenyan oil plant ID: KEN_75 · Source: AidData | $80m | USD 80,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Private sector |
| 2013 | Technical and Economic Cooperation ID: KEN_76 · Source: JH CARI | $32m | n/a | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | Olkaria IV Geothermal Drilling 26 Wells ID: KEN_71 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $383m | USD 382,500,000 | rate 2% | grace 8y | maturity 21y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | China provides loan for Kenya's National fibre optic backbone infrastructure ID: KEN_68 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $72m | KES 6,120,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | China funds the construction of a Nyahururu-Maralal transmission line ID: KEN_64 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $21m | KES 1,770,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | Nairobi Southern Bypass Road ID: KEN_61 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $162m | USD 161,500,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | China provides a $9.5 Billion KES concessional loan for the construction of Kenyatta University Teaching, Research and Referral Hospital ID: KEN_58 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $111m | KES 9,850,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 13y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | Enterprise Messaging and Collaboration System ID: KEN_60 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $48m | RMB 308,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 13y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | Rehabilitation And Upgrading Of Equipment In The Universities And Technical Training Institutes Project ID: KEN_62 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $30m | RMB 196,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 19y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | Chinese loans 4.3 billion KES to buy equipment for Kenya's national youth service ID: KEN_48 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $60m | KES 4,300,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | CDB loans $50-m to Kenya Equity Bank ID: KEN_44 · Source: AidData | $51m | USD 50,820,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Private sector |
| 2010 | Renovation of Sports Center Kasarani ID: KEN_54 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $12m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | Nairobi-Thika Highway; 50km ID: KEN_43 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $156m | n/a | rate 2% | grace 5y | maturity 21y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | Kenyan Urban Power Grid Phase II - Kamburu-Meru; 212.6km Transmission Line with Two Substations; 220kV; 108km Transmission Line with One Substation; 132kV ID: KEN_42 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $93m | RMB 637,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2008 | Nairobi Eastern and Northern Bypass Highway (Nairobi Ring Road); Ruaka-Ruiru; 21km ID: KEN_35 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $108m | USD 108,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2008 | Procurement of Power Lines Material Loan 2 ID: KEN_36 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $56m | RMB 390,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 8y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2007 | National Optic Fibre Backbone Infrastructure (NOFBI) Phase I: E-government ID: KEN_29 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $42m | RMB 317,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 8y | maturity 21y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2007 | Construction of circuit lines and substations Phase I ID: KEN_28 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $21m | RMB 160,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 6y | maturity 19y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2006 | Rural Telecommunications Development Project ID: KEN_26 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $25m | RMB 196,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 6y | maturity 19y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2006 | CDB provided $17 million loan for Low medium income housing projects ID: KEN_24 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $17m | USD 17,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity 15y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2001 | China Loans 1.5 billion Shillings for Kipsigak-Serem-Shamakhokho road project ID: KEN_12 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $19m | KES 1,500,000,000 | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Kenya and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Kenya reports owing to all creditors
Kenya reported $41.22bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $35.23bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 20.9% of the reported external total and 23.2% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $8.60bn | $41.22bn | 20.9% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $8.16bn | $35.23bn | 23.2% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Kenya's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology