Chinese overseas lending / KEN
Kenya: debt owed to China
In 2021, Kenya is estimated to have owed China $8.60bn, equal to 7.8% of its GDP, which ranks it 18 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $8.65bn in 2020.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2017, when it rose by $1.27bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Kenya, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Kenya reports owing to all creditors
Kenya reported $41.22bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $35.23bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 20.9% of the reported external total and 23.2% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $8.60bn | $41.22bn | 20.9% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $8.16bn | $35.23bn | 23.2% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Kenya's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology