Chinese overseas lending / THA
Thailand: debt owed to China
In 2021, Thailand is estimated to have owed China $352m, equal to 0.1% of its GDP, which ranks it 84 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $2.34bn in 2013.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2013, when it rose by $647m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Thailand, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
No mapped loan-level row for Thailand is flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in the 2021 hrt_china_loans replication file, so there is no historical project table to show for that release. This does not mean the November 2025 refreshed stock panel lacks supporting records; the two releases use different source universes and cannot be reconciled here. The earlier file still carries 14 project rows mapped to Thailand, but all of them sit outside that release's debt-estimate sample and are excluded here.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Thailand. This earlier loan file is not the source universe used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. Rows outside DebtEstimateSample are not shown. Methodology
Against what Thailand reports owing to all creditors
Thailand reported $196.68bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $36.82bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 0.2% of the reported external total and 0.0% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $352m | $196.68bn | 0.2% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $2.51m | $36.82bn | 0.0% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Thailand's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
People’s Bank of China swap drawings
Thailand carried a drawn swap balance in 3 years of the panel, peaking at $82m. A drawing is a liability to another central bank, and it is not netted out of a headline gross reserves figure.
| Year | Drawn balance | Share of the year’s China total |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | $82m | 3.5% |
| 2015 | $77m | 4.8% |
| 2016 | $72m | 5.9% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: every year in which Thailand carried a drawn PBoC swap-line balance above zero. Methodology
The same balance measured against gross international reserves, for every country that has drawn