Chinese overseas lending / Swap lines
The central-bank liability inside the reserves number
15countries have carried a drawn balance on a People’s Bank of China swap line at some point between 2012 and 2021. A drawing is not a loan to a government, it is a liability of one central bank to another, and it can sit inside the gross reserves figure the market reads without being netted out of it. In 2021, 10 countries carried a balance, and for 3 of them the drawn balance exceeded 40% of gross international reserves.
Combined drawn balance, 2012 to 2021
Summed across every country carrying a balance in that year. Each row also gives how many countries that was.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: drawn PBoC swap-line balances summed over all countries with a balance in each year, 2012 to 2021. Methodology
Every country that has drawn, by largest balance
| Country | Peak drawn balance | Peak year | Years with a balance | Balance in 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | $20.41bn | 2021 | 8 | $20.41bn |
| Turkey | $5.49bn | 2021 | 2 | $5.49bn |
| Pakistan | $4.71bn | 2021 | 9 | $4.71bn |
| Egypt | $2.83bn | 2021 | 5 | $2.83bn |
| Mongolia | $1.88bn | 2021 | 10 | $1.88bn |
| Sri Lanka | $1.57bn | 2021 | 1 | $1.57bn |
| Malaysia | $1.10bn | 2020 | 2 | $1.03bn |
| Ukraine | $798m | 2015 | 1 | none |
| Nigeria | $520m | 2021 | 4 | $520m |
| Lao People's Democratic Republic | $300m | 2020 | 2 | $300m |
| Russia | $176m | 2017 | 4 | none |
| Suriname | $157m | 2021 | 7 | $157m |
| Belarus | $154m | 2015 | 1 | none |
| Thailand | $82m | 2013 | 3 | none |
| Tajikistan | $0.14m | 2016 | 1 | none |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: every borrower with a drawn PBoC swap-line balance in at least one year of the panel; "none" in the last column is a reported zero, meaning no balance outstanding, not a missing figure. Methodology
Drawn balance against gross reserves, year by year
One row per country-year with a balance outstanding: 60 in total. Reserves are gross international reserves including gold (World Bank FI.RES.TOTL.CD) for the same country and the same year. The final column is a ratio of two stocks, not a statement that the reserves consist of the swap.
| Year | Country | Drawn swap | Gross reserves | Drawn as % of gross reserves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Argentina | $20.41bn | $39.65bn | 51.5% |
| 2021 | Sri Lanka | $1.57bn | $3.14bn | 50.0% |
| 2021 | Mongolia | $1.88bn | $4.38bn | 43.0% |
| 2021 | Pakistan | $4.71bn | $22.81bn | 20.6% |
| 2021 | Suriname | $157m | $992m | 15.8% |
| 2021 | Lao People's Democratic Republic | $300m | $1.95bn | 15.4% |
| 2021 | Egypt | $2.83bn | $39.82bn | 7.1% |
| 2021 | Turkey | $5.49bn | $111.18bn | 4.9% |
| 2021 | Nigeria | $520m | $41.73bn | 1.2% |
| 2021 | Malaysia | $1.03bn | $116.92bn | 0.9% |
| 2020 | Argentina | $19.89bn | $39.40bn | 50.5% |
| 2020 | Mongolia | $1.84bn | $4.55bn | 40.4% |
| 2020 | Suriname | $153m | $585m | 26.2% |
| 2020 | Pakistan | $3.06bn | $18.52bn | 16.5% |
| 2020 | Lao People's Democratic Republic | $300m | $1.89bn | 15.8% |
| 2020 | Egypt | $2.75bn | $38.97bn | 7.1% |
| 2020 | Malaysia | $1.10bn | $107.64bn | 1.0% |
| 2020 | Nigeria | $156m | $38.03bn | 0.4% |
| 2019 | Argentina | $18.61bn | $44.88bn | 41.5% |
| 2019 | Mongolia | $1.72bn | $4.36bn | 39.4% |
| 2019 | Suriname | $141m | $648m | 21.7% |
| 2019 | Pakistan | $2.86bn | $16.59bn | 17.3% |
| 2019 | Egypt | $2.58bn | $44.57bn | 5.8% |
| 2019 | Nigeria | $208m | $39.38bn | 0.5% |
| 2018 | Mongolia | $1.75bn | $3.55bn | 49.3% |
| 2018 | Argentina | $18.97bn | $66.22bn | 28.6% |
| 2018 | Pakistan | $2.92bn | $11.84bn | 24.7% |
| 2018 | Suriname | $139m | $581m | 23.9% |
| 2018 | Egypt | $2.63bn | $41.84bn | 6.3% |
| 2018 | Nigeria | $98m | $43.72bn | 0.2% |
| 2018 | Russia | $130m | $468.65bn | 0.0% |
| 2017 | Mongolia | $1.84bn | $3.02bn | 61.1% |
| 2017 | Suriname | $154m | $425m | 36.2% |
| 2017 | Argentina | $10.75bn | $55.31bn | 19.4% |
| 2017 | Pakistan | $1.54bn | $18.46bn | 8.3% |
| 2017 | Egypt | $2.76bn | $36.40bn | 7.6% |
| 2017 | Russia | $176m | $432.73bn | 0.0% |
| 2016 | Mongolia | $1.73bn | $1.30bn | 132.4% |
| 2016 | Suriname | $144m | $381m | 37.8% |
| 2016 | Argentina | $10.07bn | $38.41bn | 26.2% |
| 2016 | Pakistan | $1.44bn | $22.03bn | 6.5% |
| 2016 | Turkey | $143m | $104.81bn | 0.1% |
| 2016 | Thailand | $72m | $171.77bn | 0.0% |
| 2016 | Russia | $130m | $377.05bn | 0.0% |
| 2016 | Tajikistan | $0.14m | $645m | 0.0% |
| 2015 | Mongolia | $1.77bn | $1.32bn | 134.0% |
| 2015 | Suriname | $154m | $330m | 46.6% |
| 2015 | Argentina | $10.78bn | $25.52bn | 42.3% |
| 2015 | Pakistan | $1.54bn | $20.03bn | 7.7% |
| 2015 | Ukraine | $798m | $13.30bn | 6.0% |
| 2015 | Belarus | $154m | $4.17bn | 3.7% |
| 2015 | Thailand | $77m | $156.46bn | 0.0% |
| 2015 | Russia | $1.54m | $368.04bn | 0.0% |
| 2014 | Mongolia | $1.47bn | $1.65bn | 89.0% |
| 2014 | Pakistan | $1.06bn | $14.31bn | 7.4% |
| 2014 | Argentina | $2.32bn | $31.41bn | 7.4% |
| 2013 | Mongolia | $983m | $2.25bn | 43.7% |
| 2013 | Pakistan | $819m | $7.65bn | 10.7% |
| 2013 | Thailand | $82m | $167.23bn | 0.0% |
| 2012 | Mongolia | $334m | $4.13bn | 8.1% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank World Development Indicators, FI.RES.TOTL.CD, total reserves including gold (reserves). Selection: every country-year in the panel with a drawn PBoC swap-line balance above zero, joined to gross international reserves including gold for the same country-year. Methodology
What this cannot tell you
- Whether the drawn balance is actually inside the reserves figure. The two series come from different sources and are not consolidated with each other. What the ratio establishes is scale: the drawn balance is that large relative to gross reserves. Whether a given central bank has already netted it out is a question this data cannot answer.
- The terms. Tenor, rollover history, interest and collateral are not in the panel. A balance that is rolled indefinitely and one that matures next quarter look identical here.
- Anything after 2021. The panel ends there, and the reserves series in this estate runs later. Every row above is pinned to a year the swap panel actually covers.