Housing cycles
Real house prices around a banking crisis
A five-years-before, five-years-after event study on the BIS real residential property price index, with the Laeven-Valencia systemic banking crises as the events. Run again on 150 years of Jorda-Schularick-Taylor data and split at 1945, the same test gives a median five-year real run-up of +5.5% and a median trough of -5.3% for the 29 measurable episodes dated 1882 to 1939, against +29.1% and -21.3% for the 25 dated 1974 to 2008.
The same event study before and after 1945
Jorda-Schularick-Taylor carries annual house prices and a banking-crisis flag for 18 advanced economies, 1870 to 2020. The identical event study on it yields 54 episodes with a complete t-5 to t+5 window: 29 dated 1882 to 1939, and 25 dated 1974 to 2008. No usable episode falls between 1940 and 1973. The completeness rule bites hardest early: 29 of the 63 banking crises JST dates through 1945 have house prices five years either side of them, against 25 of 25 after 1945. The earlier median therefore describes 29 of the 63 crises JST dates through 1945, not all of them.
Source: Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database Median across episodes of real house prices (hpnom / cpi), re-normalised to 100 in the crisis year (crisisJST = 1). Episodes require a complete t-5 to t+5 window. Methodology
| Era | Crises dated | Usable episodes | Countries | Median run-up, t-5 to t | Median trough, t to t+5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Through 1945 (usable: 1882 to 1939) | 63 | 29 | 12 | +5.5% | -5.3% |
| After 1945 (usable: 1974 to 2008) | 25 | 25 | 17 | +29.1% | -21.3% |
Source: Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database Medians are taken over episodes, not over countries. Crises dated counts every crisisJST = 1 year in the era, usable or not. Methodology
The modern event study, 29 episodes, 26 countries
BIS real index, Laeven-Valencia banking crises, 1977 to 2011. The median path is highest at t-1 (102.3, against 100 at t) and stands at 80.6 five years after the crisis year. At t+5 the 25th to 75th percentile across episodes runs 73.3 to 93.3, and 5 of the 29 episodes are above their own crisis-year level.
Source: BIS residential property prices (selected series) | Laeven and Valencia, Systemic Banking Crises Database (2025 update) Annual mean of the four quarterly real index values, re-normalised to 100 in the first crisis year. Complete t-5 to t+5 windows only. Methodology
| Year from crisis | Episodes | Median | Mean | p25 | p75 | Above t | 2007-2011 median (n=19) | All other (n=10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t-5 | 29 | 83.6 | 87.6 | 74.8 | 100.9 | 8 | 82.2 | 93.5 |
| t-4 | 29 | 85.4 | 91.9 | 80.0 | 103.8 | 9 | 85.3 | 99.9 |
| t-3 | 29 | 94.9 | 97.3 | 88.5 | 103.4 | 10 | 94.2 | 104.4 |
| t-2 | 29 | 101.0 | 101.4 | 94.6 | 106.5 | 15 | 99.4 | 103.9 |
| t-1 | 29 | 102.3 | 103.0 | 100.1 | 106.8 | 22 | 102.3 | 101.9 |
| t (crisis) | 29 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 5 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| t+1 | 29 | 93.3 | 93.3 | 88.5 | 99.1 | 5 | 93.8 | 89.7 |
| t+2 | 29 | 90.3 | 89.7 | 81.7 | 98.5 | 5 | 90.4 | 82.2 |
| t+3 | 29 | 84.1 | 87.3 | 79.3 | 96.4 | 5 | 84.1 | 84.0 |
| t+4 | 29 | 81.3 | 84.7 | 74.7 | 93.4 | 4 | 79.4 | 82.6 |
| t+5 | 29 | 80.6 | 84.3 | 73.3 | 93.3 | 5 | 78.5 | 83.0 |
Source: BIS residential property prices (selected series) | Laeven and Valencia, Systemic Banking Crises Database (2025 update) Crisis year = 100 by construction. Above t counts the episodes strictly above their own crisis-year level at that horizon. The last two columns split the same 29 episodes: the 19 dated 2007-2011 stand at 82.2 at t-5, the 10 others at 93.5. Methodology
Every episode, one row each
Sorted by the five-year real run-up into the crisis. 8 of the 29 episodes had real house prices falling over the five years before the crisis year, and 3 never closed a year below the crisis-year level in the five years after it.
| Country | Crisis | Run-up t-5 to t | Trough vs t | Years to trough | Peak to trough |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUS Russia | 2008-2009 | +146.6% | -34.1% | 3 | -34.1% |
| GBR United Kingdom | 2007-2011 | +47.5% | -22.5% | 5 | -22.5% |
| DNK Denmark | 2008-2009 | +45.8% | -20.6% | 4 | -27.2% |
| FRA France | 2008-2009 | +43.2% | -6.2% | 1 | -7.9% |
| ISL Iceland | 2008-2012 | +41.2% | -25.9% | 2 | -31.0% |
| SWE Sweden | 2008-2009 | +40.9% | 0.0% | no fall | -2.2% |
| ESP Spain | 2008-2012 | +35.6% | -39.7% | 5 | -42.9% |
| SWE Sweden | 1991-1995 | +33.6% | -24.9% | 2 | -26.6% |
| BEL Belgium | 2008-2012 | +33.1% | -0.7% | 4 | -0.9% |
| MYS Malaysia | 1997-1999 | +30.7% | -18.3% | 2 | -18.8% |
| ESP Spain | 1977-1981 | +27.5% | -25.1% | 5 | -25.1% |
| USA United States | 2007-2011 | +25.6% | -31.7% | 4 | -37.4% |
| CHE Switzerland | 2008-2009 | +21.7% | 0.0% | no fall | 0.0% |
| USA United States | 1988 | +20.2% | -8.0% | 5 | -8.0% |
| IRL Ireland | 2008-2012 | +19.7% | -49.1% | 4 | -54.5% |
| GRC Greece | 2008-2012 | +17.2% | -37.9% | 5 | -39.4% |
| ITA Italy | 2008-2009 | +16.3% | -16.9% | 5 | -17.5% |
| CYP Cyprus | 2011-2015 | +16.1% | -21.6% | 4 | -32.7% |
| FIN Finland | 1991-1995 | +16.0% | -28.1% | 2 | -47.1% |
| NLD Netherlands | 2008-2009 | +11.6% | -26.7% | 5 | -26.9% |
| AUT Austria | 2008-2012 | +1.5% | 0.0% | no fall | -2.1% |
| COL Colombia | 1998-2000 | -0.9% | -29.0% | 5 | -38.9% |
| THA Thailand | 1997-2000 | -1.2% | -18.7% | 4 | -24.4% |
| HUN Hungary | 2008-2012 | -3.0% | -31.4% | 5 | -34.0% |
| DEU Germany | 2008-2009 | -8.4% | -1.5% | 2 | -9.7% |
| PRT Portugal | 2008-2012 | -12.8% | -19.4% | 5 | -29.7% |
| JPN Japan | 1997-2001 | -14.1% | -15.4% | 5 | -27.3% |
| KOR Korea | 1997-1998 | -22.9% | -17.8% | 4 | -36.6% |
| NOR Norway | 1991-1993 | -26.9% | -8.0% | 2 | -40.6% |
Source: BIS residential property prices (selected series) | Laeven and Valencia, Systemic Banking Crises Database (2025 update) Trough vs t = the lowest of the annual real index values in t to t+5, against the crisis year. Peak to trough measures from the highest annual value in t-5 to t. Years to trough is 0 when the crisis year is itself the low. Methodology
The long US view: 1890 to 2022
In real terms the index went from 100.0 in 1890 to 218.3 in 2022: 0.59% a year over 132 years. The same series in nominal terms multiplied by 83.9x (3.41% a year). Every figure here is real: Shiller’s real index is the nominal index divided by the CPI column of the same table and set to 100.0 at the first observation.
Source: Robert Shiller, Online Data (Irrational Exuberance, home price index) Complete years only, as annual means. The table is mixed-frequency: 63 annual rows (1890-1952) and 842 monthly rows (1953-2023), and the final partial year is dropped rather than plotted as a year. Methodology
| Real index, monthly era | Month | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Peak | 2005-12 | 195.8 |
| Trough of the deepest real drawdown | 2012-02 | 125.9 |
| All-time real high | 2022-05 | 224.4 |
| Last observation | 2023-01 | 209.3 |
From the 2005-12 peak, real US house prices fell 35.7% to 2012-02. On complete-year annual means, the deepest fall in the whole record runs from 1894 (124.0) to 1921 (65.6), -47.1%, and the index did not close a year above the 1894 level again until 1987, 93 years later. The two are measured at different frequencies: the first monthly, the second on annual means.
The all-time real high is 2022-05, +14.6% above the 2005 peak. The last observation (2023-01, where the series ends) is -6.7% off that high.
Source: Robert Shiller, Online Data (Irrational Exuberance, home price index) The nominal index behind this is spliced from 4 sources (Grebler 1890-1933, Five-CityMedian 1934-1952, PHCPI 1953-1974, S&P/CoreLogic/Case-Shiller 1975-2023) and the CPI deflator from 2 (Warren&Pearson 1890-1912, BLS 1913-2023). Methodology
Where each of the 57 BIS countries stands, and when its data starts
The BIS index starts as early as 1947 and as late as 2010, a 63-year spread, and 2 of the 57 countries start in 2010. 26 of 57 report through 2026-Q1 and the rest stop earlier (31 at 2025-Q4), so the Latest column is not a common date. Off own real peak is measured against each country’s own highest observed real quarter, so it is conditional on when that country’s index begins.
| Country | Starts | Quarters | Latest | Real y/y | Nominal y/y | Off own real peak | Episodes (usable) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITA Italy | 1947 | 316 | 2025-Q4 | +2.9% | +4.1% | -27.8% | 1 (1) |
| JPN Japan | 1955 | 284 | 2025-Q4 | +2.3% | +5.0% | -35.9% | 1 (1) |
| NZL New Zealand | 1962 | 255 | 2025-Q4 | -4.2% | -1.3% | -27.2% | 0 (0) |
| ZAF South Africa | 1966 | 241 | 2026-Q1 | +2.7% | +6.0% | -26.8% | 0 (0) |
| GBR United Kingdom | 1968 | 232 | 2026-Q1 | -2.2% | +0.9% | -11.0% | 1 (1) |
| AUS Australia | 1970 | 225 | 2026-Q1 | +5.7% | +10.0% | at peak | 0 (0) |
| BEL Belgium | 1970 | 224 | 2025-Q4 | +1.3% | +3.5% | -4.9% | 1 (1) |
| CAN Canada | 1970 | 225 | 2026-Q1 | -6.8% | -4.8% | -29.3% | 0 (0) |
| CHE Switzerland | 1970 | 225 | 2026-Q1 | +4.5% | +4.7% | at peak | 1 (1) |
| DEU Germany | 1970 | 224 | 2025-Q4 | +0.9% | +3.0% | -19.5% | 1 (1) |
| DNK Denmark | 1970 | 224 | 2025-Q4 | +5.5% | +7.6% | -3.1% | 1 (1) |
| FIN Finland | 1970 | 224 | 2025-Q4 | -3.2% | -3.2% | -24.7% | 1 (1) |
| FRA France | 1970 | 225 | 2026-Q1 | -0.8% | +0.2% | -12.2% | 1 (1) |
| IRL Ireland | 1970 | 225 | 2026-Q1 | +3.6% | +6.7% | -5.2% | 1 (1) |
| NLD Netherlands | 1970 | 224 | 2025-Q4 | +3.1% | +6.1% | at peak | 1 (1) |
| NOR Norway | 1970 | 225 | 2026-Q1 | +0.5% | +3.8% | -6.8% | 1 (1) |
| SWE Sweden | 1970 | 224 | 2025-Q4 | +0.7% | +1.2% | -20.1% | 2 (2) |
| USA United States | 1970 | 225 | 2026-Q1 | -2.1% | +0.6% | -2.9% | 2 (2) |
| ESP Spain | 1971 | 220 | 2025-Q4 | +9.6% | +12.9% | -13.9% | 2 (2) |
| KOR Korea | 1975 | 205 | 2026-Q1 | -0.3% | +1.8% | -30.2% | 1 (1) |
| HKG Hong Kong SAR | 1979 | 186 | 2026-Q1 | +6.2% | +7.8% | -31.0% | 0 (0) |
| ISL Iceland | 1981 | 181 | 2026-Q1 | -2.0% | +3.2% | -2.3% | 1 (1) |
| AUT Austria | 1986 | 158 | 2025-Q4 | -1.8% | +2.1% | -17.3% | 1 (1) |
| COL Colombia | 1988 | 152 | 2025-Q4 | +7.2% | +12.9% | -0.3% | 2 (1) |
| MYS Malaysia | 1988 | 153 | 2026-Q1 | +0.1% | +1.7% | -1.2% | 1 (1) |
| PRT Portugal | 1988 | 152 | 2025-Q4 | +16.3% | +18.9% | at peak | 1 (1) |
| THA Thailand | 1991 | 141 | 2026-Q1 | +1.9% | +1.3% | at peak | 2 (1) |
| HUN Hungary | 1992 | 136 | 2025-Q4 | +17.0% | +21.4% | at peak | 2 (1) |
| ISR Israel | 1994 | 128 | 2025-Q4 | -2.7% | -0.3% | -3.7% | 1 (0) |
| GRC Greece | 1997 | 117 | 2026-Q1 | +2.6% | +5.7% | -18.9% | 1 (1) |
| HRV Croatia | 1997 | 116 | 2025-Q4 | +12.0% | +16.0% | at peak | 1 (0) |
| BGR Bulgaria | 1998 | 112 | 2025-Q4 | +7.0% | +12.6% | -2.7% | 1 (0) |
| LTU Lithuania | 1998 | 109 | 2025-Q4 | +6.8% | +10.8% | at peak | 1 (0) |
| PER Peru | 1998 | 112 | 2025-Q4 | +4.6% | +6.1% | -27.7% | 1 (0) |
| SGP Singapore | 1998 | 112 | 2025-Q4 | +2.1% | +3.3% | -0.1% | 0 (0) |
| MKD North Macedonia | 2000 | 105 | 2026-Q1 | +12.6% | +16.7% | at peak | 1 (0) |
| SRB Serbia | 2000 | 105 | 2026-Q1 | +2.7% | +5.3% | -15.1% | 0 (0) |
| BRA Brazil | 2001 | 101 | 2026-Q1 | +0.2% | +4.3% | -26.0% | 2 (0) |
| RUS Russia | 2001 | 101 | 2026-Q1 | +7.4% | +13.7% | -27.4% | 2 (1) |
| CHL Chile | 2002 | 96 | 2025-Q4 | +2.0% | +5.5% | at peak | 2 (0) |
| CYP Cyprus | 2002 | 96 | 2025-Q4 | +7.6% | +7.1% | -20.6% | 1 (1) |
| IDN Indonesia | 2002 | 97 | 2026-Q1 | -3.2% | +0.6% | -33.3% | 1 (0) |
| CHN China | 2005 | 84 | 2026-Q1 | -7.1% | -6.3% | -24.7% | 1 (0) |
| EST Estonia | 2005 | 85 | 2026-Q1 | +8.1% | +11.9% | at peak | 1 (0) |
| MEX Mexico | 2005 | 85 | 2026-Q1 | +4.4% | +8.7% | at peak | 2 (0) |
| MLT Malta | 2005 | 84 | 2025-Q4 | +3.4% | +6.1% | at peak | 0 (0) |
| LVA Latvia | 2006 | 81 | 2026-Q1 | +7.8% | +10.9% | -21.7% | 2 (0) |
| SVK Slovakia | 2006 | 81 | 2026-Q1 | +9.3% | +13.4% | at peak | 1 (0) |
| LUX Luxembourg | 2007 | 76 | 2025-Q4 | -2.8% | +0.1% | -21.1% | 1 (0) |
| MAR Morocco | 2007 | 76 | 2025-Q4 | +0.4% | +0.3% | -25.2% | 1 (0) |
| SVN Slovenia | 2007 | 76 | 2025-Q4 | +3.0% | +5.8% | at peak | 2 (0) |
| CZE Czechia | 2008 | 72 | 2025-Q4 | +8.0% | +10.4% | -3.2% | 1 (0) |
| PHL Philippines | 2008 | 72 | 2025-Q4 | -0.1% | +1.6% | -6.4% | 2 (0) |
| IND India | 2009 | 68 | 2025-Q4 | +3.0% | +3.6% | -8.0% | 1 (0) |
| ROU Romania | 2009 | 68 | 2025-Q4 | -2.5% | +7.0% | -40.0% | 1 (0) |
| POL Poland | 2010 | 64 | 2025-Q4 | +1.8% | +4.3% | at peak | 1 (0) |
| TUR Türkiye | 2010 | 65 | 2026-Q1 | -3.3% | +26.7% | -17.9% | 2 (0) |
Source: BIS residential property prices (selected series) | Laeven and Valencia, Systemic Banking Crises Database (2025 update) Real and nominal y/y are the BIS year-on-year series read directly, not differenced from the index. Methodology
What this data cannot tell you
Levels are not comparable. The BIS index is 2010 = 100 in every country independently. It is an index of each country’s own price against its own base year, not a price, so it cannot say whether housing is dearer in one country than another. Growth and drawdown are comparable; levels are not, and no level comparison across countries appears in this module.
19 of the 29 episodes began in the same five years. They began between 2007 and 2011. The median path is therefore not 29 independent observations. The event-study table carries the 19 and the 10 others in separate columns, so the split is visible at every horizon.
Coverage kills 34 of the 63 crises. Laeven-Valencia dates 63 banking crises across 49 of the 57 BIS countries. 29 of those 63 have a real index reaching five years before AND five years after, in 26 countries; the other 34 cannot be measured here. 30 of the 34 are in the 23 countries that have a crisis on record but no usable episode (BGR, BRA, CHL, CHN, CZE, EST, HRV, IDN, IND, ISR, LTU, LUX, LVA, MAR, MEX, MKD, PER, PHL, POL, ROU, SVK, SVN, TUR), and every one of those 30 is missing the year five years before the crisis. The remaining 4 sit in countries that do contribute at least one other episode. Every one of them is listed on its country page and marked not measurable.
8 countries have no crisis to study at all. Australia (AUS), Canada (CAN), Hong Kong SAR (HKG), Malta (MLT), New Zealand (NZL), Singapore (SGP), Serbia (SRB), South Africa (ZAF) carry no systemic banking crisis in Laeven-Valencia. They still get a page for their price history, and they enter no median here. Absence from the chronology is the chronology’s judgement, not proof that no crisis happened.
The aggregates are excluded. The BIS file also carries 4 aggregate series (Advanced economies, Emerging market economies (aggregate), Euro area, World) with no ISO3 code. They are not countries, they get no page, and they enter no median.
Shiller is the US, and it is spliced. One country. Its 1890-1952 segment is annual rather than monthly, and its nominal input over those years comes from Grebler and Five-CityMedian. The long US comparisons on this page (1894 to 1921, 1890 to 2022) are only as good as that splice and the CPI splice under it.
Timing, not causation. The crisis dates come from Laeven-Valencia, not from this price data, and nothing here separates cause from effect. This module reports what the two series do around each other in time.
Source: BIS residential property prices (selected series) | Laeven and Valencia, Systemic Banking Crises Database (2025 update) | Jorda-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database | Robert Shiller, Online Data (Irrational Exuberance, home price index) Methodology