Treasury rates
The Treasury curve, from the source
The full daily par yield curve as the U.S. Treasury publishes it, every tenor from 1 month to 30 years, daily since 1990: the curve today against one year ago and against the pre-GFC inversion, the 10-year yield across three and a half decades, and every 2Y-10Y inversion episode computed from the data. Auction demand and gross issuance live on the companion auctions page.
The par curve: today, one year ago, and the pre-GFC inversion
Three curves, each an exact trading day located in the data. Today (Jul 10, 2026) the curve slopes upward: 2Y at 4.21%, 10Y at 4.56%. One year earlier (Jul 10, 2025) the 10Y stood at 4.35%. Nov 15, 2006is the single deepest 2Y-10Y print of the 2005–2007 pre-crisis inversion (−0.19 pp, 2Y 4.80% over 10Y 4.61%): the whole curve sat above 4.6% and the short end above 5%, a shape that preceded the global financial crisis by about a year. Tenors are spaced equally, not to maturity scale; the 2006 curve carried 11 tenors against 14 today, so its line skips the tenors that did not yet exist.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates Daily par yield curve rates, percent. Comparison dates located by query: the latest trading day, the last trading day one year prior, and the argmin of the 2Y-10Y spread over 2005-2007. Methodology
Curve snapshot, Jul 10, 2026
Every tenor Treasury currently publishes (14 of them), with the level one year earlier and the change: the shortest tenor moved −0.65 pp over the year and the longest +0.20 pp.
| Tenor | Jul 10, 2026 | Jul 10, 2025 | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3.71% | 4.36% | −0.65 |
| 1.5M | 3.74% | 4.39% | −0.65 |
| 2M | 3.81% | 4.47% | −0.66 |
| 3M | 3.85% | 4.42% | −0.57 |
| 4M | 3.94% | 4.42% | −0.48 |
| 6M | 3.99% | 4.31% | −0.32 |
| 1Y | 4.06% | 4.07% | −0.01 |
| 2Y | 4.21% | 3.86% | +0.35 |
| 3Y | 4.22% | 3.82% | +0.40 |
| 5Y | 4.30% | 3.93% | +0.37 |
| 7Y | 4.42% | 4.12% | +0.30 |
| 10Y | 4.56% | 4.35% | +0.21 |
| 20Y | 5.08% | 4.87% | +0.21 |
| 30Y | 5.06% | 4.86% | +0.20 |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates Percent, par yields. Tenors located by name in the source files, never by column position, because the tenor set grows over eras. Methodology
The 10-year yield, 1990–2026
The benchmark long rate across the full history of the dataset. Its highest daily print is 9.09% (May 2, 1990) and its lowest is 0.52% (Aug 4, 2020, the pandemic trough): a three-decade descent from the post-Volcker era to the zero-rate floor, then the sharp post-2021 repricing back above 4%.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates Charted weekly (last print of each ISO week) to keep the page light; the highs and lows quoted above are computed from the full daily series. Methodology
The 2Y-10Y spread and its inversions
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, computed from those two tenors of the par curve. When it turns negative (red fill) the curve is inverted, the classic recession signal. Since 1990 the daily spread has been negative on 1,052 of 9,136 trading days (11.5%), in 9 episodes of ten or more consecutive trading days (plus 16 shorter blips). The 2022–2024 episode is the longest on record, at 537 consecutive trading days, and also the deepest: the spread reached −1.08 pp on Jul 3, 2023.
| Inversion episode | Trading days | Trough (pp) | Trough date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 1990 – Mar 29, 1990 | 16 | −0.14 | Mar 20, 1990 |
| Jun 15, 1998 – Jul 9, 1998 | 18 | −0.07 | Jun 25, 1998 |
| Feb 11, 2000 – Dec 26, 2000 | 220 | −0.52 | Apr 7, 2000 |
| Jan 31, 2006 – Mar 7, 2006 | 25 | −0.16 | Feb 23, 2006 |
| Jun 8, 2006 – Jun 28, 2006 | 15 | −0.06 | Jun 14, 2006 |
| Jun 30, 2006 – Jul 26, 2006 | 18 | −0.07 | Jul 11, 2006 |
| Aug 17, 2006 – Mar 20, 2007 | 147 | −0.19 | Nov 15, 2006 |
| May 3, 2007 – May 21, 2007 | 13 | −0.06 | May 9, 2007 |
| Jul 6, 2022 – Aug 26, 2024 | 537 | −1.08 | Jul 3, 2023 |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve rates Episodes are maximal runs of consecutive trading days with the 2Y above the 10Y, computed from the daily series; runs under 10 trading days (16 of them) are counted but not listed. The chart is weekly-thinned, so the shortest episodes may not be visible in it. Methodology
Next: who buys all of this, at what demand, on Treasury auctions. Related: the FRED-based conditions composite on financial conditions. See the methodology for Treasury’s own par-curve description, the tenor-set eras, and the auction-field reference.