Bank health / Supervisory stress tests
US bank stress tests: the Fed’s DFAST results
The Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test is the Federal Reserve’s annual supervisory exercise: it projects each large bank’s capital, losses and revenue over a nine-quarter horizon under a common hypothetical recession. Everything below is reproduced exactly as the Board of Governors published it, for the severely adverse scenario. These are supervisory results, not a FinObservatory score and not investment advice.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test (DFAST) results 2026 Stress Test, severely adverse scenario; capital ratios in percent, losses in USD billion over the nine-quarter horizon. Methodology
Projected CET1 path by firm, severely adverse
Every firm in the 2026 Stress Test, showing its starting (actual) common equity tier 1 ratio, its projected minimum over the stress horizon, and the peak-to-trough decline. Sorted by the largest CET1 decline. A large decline is not a fail: the minimum is what matters against each firm’s regulatory requirement, and every firm shown stays above the 4.5% CET1 minimum.
| Firm | Actual CET1 | Projected minimum | Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DB USA Corporation | 22.6% | 14.4% | 8.2 pp |
| First Citizens Bancshares, Inc. | 11.2% | 6.7% | 4.5 pp |
| BMO Financial Corp. | 14.0% | 10.1% | 3.9 pp |
| RBC US Group Holdings LLC | 17.2% | 13.7% | 3.5 pp |
| Capital One Financial Corporation | 14.3% | 11.0% | 3.3 pp |
| HSBC North America Holdings Inc. | 11.3% | 8.1% | 3.2 pp |
| The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | 14.3% | 11.4% | 2.9 pp |
| Citigroup Inc. | 13.2% | 10.3% | 2.9 pp |
| UBS Americas Holding LLC | 18.1% | 15.3% | 2.8 pp |
| Barclays US LLC | 14.8% | 12.3% | 2.5 pp |
| Morgan Stanley | 15.0% | 12.5% | 2.5 pp |
| TD Group US Holdings LLC | 16.5% | 14.0% | 2.5 pp |
| Ally Financial Inc. | 10.2% | 7.8% | 2.4 pp |
| Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | 10.6% | 8.6% | 2.0 pp |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 14.6% | 12.6% | 2.0 pp |
| KeyCorp | 11.8% | 9.9% | 1.9 pp |
| M&T Bank Corporation | 10.8% | 9.2% | 1.6 pp |
| Bank of America Corporation | 11.4% | 9.9% | 1.5 pp |
| Wells Fargo & Company | 10.6% | 9.2% | 1.4 pp |
| Fifth Third Bancorp | 10.8% | 9.7% | 1.1 pp |
| Truist Financial Corporation | 10.8% | 9.7% | 1.1 pp |
| Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | 10.4% | 9.3% | 1.1 pp |
| U.S. Bancorp | 10.8% | 9.8% | 1.0 pp |
| Santander Holdings USA, Inc. | 12.6% | 11.7% | 0.9 pp |
| American Express Company | 10.5% | 9.7% | 0.8 pp |
| State Street Corporation | 11.6% | 10.8% | 0.8 pp |
| Regions Financial Corporation | 10.9% | 10.3% | 0.6 pp |
| Northern Trust Corporation | 12.6% | 12.3% | 0.3 pp |
| The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | 10.6% | 10.3% | 0.3 pp |
| Synchrony Financial | 12.6% | 12.5% | 0.1 pp |
| The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | 11.9% | 11.8% | 0.1 pp |
| The Charles Schwab Corporation | 30.4% | 32.2% | -1.8 pp |
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test (DFAST) results Actual = starting CET1 at the exercise's as-of date; projected minimum is the low point of the projected path under the severely adverse scenario. Methodology
Aggregate minimum capital across cycles
The aggregate projected minimum capital ratio for the tested group under the severely adverse scenario, in every DFAST cycle since 2013. The headline ratio changed definition partway through: DFAST 2013 through 2015 reported the Basel I tier 1 common ratio, and DFAST 2016 onward reports the Basel III common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio. These are different measures, so the two eras are drawn as separate lines with a break at the seam rather than joined into one continuous series.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test (DFAST) results Aggregate row for each cycle; the participating group changes composition across cycles. Methodology
Projected loss composition, 2026 Stress Test
Where the $708 billion of projected losses come from under the severely adverse scenario, over the nine-quarter horizon. Loan losses dominate; securities, trading and counterparty, and other losses make up the rest. For context, the group is projected to generate $719 billion of pre-provision net revenue over the same horizon, the income these losses are absorbed against.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test (DFAST) results Projected losses over the nine-quarter horizon; the four categories sum to the Fed's total projected loss. Methodology
See the methodology for the DFAST scenario design, the tier-1-common to CET1 regime break, and the caveats on reading supervisory stress results.