Chinese overseas lending / AGO
Angola: debt owed to China
In 2021, Angola is estimated to have owed China $19.59bn, equal to 29.5% of its GDP, which ranks it 4 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $24.14bn in 2019.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2021, when it fell by $3.33bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Angola, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Angola reports owing to all creditors
Angola reported $66.02bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $46.65bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 29.7% of the reported external total and 42.0% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $19.59bn | $66.02bn | 29.7% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $19.59bn | $46.65bn | 42.0% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Angola's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Angola
2 deals recorded between Angola and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Development Bank | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
Debt rescheduling with CDB and ICDB with the following terms: "(i) a three-year deferral of principal payments; (ii) repayment of deferred principal falling due in 2020H2–2023H1 over seven years after the grace period, with some additional modest relief of principal in 2024–25."
Acker et al. (2020)
Creditor: China Development Bank
CDB grants Angola a 12-year maturity extension through refinancing.
AidData 2.0, Acker et al. (2020)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Angola and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology