Chinese overseas lending / COG
Congo: debt owed to China
In 2021, Congo is estimated to have owed China $2.58bn, equal to 17.4% of its GDP, which ranks it 38 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $3.47bn in 2017.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2012, when it rose by $528m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Congo, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Congo reports owing to all creditors
Congo reported $8.15bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $7.48bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 31.7% of the reported external total and 34.4% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $2.58bn | $8.15bn | 31.7% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $2.57bn | $7.48bn | 34.4% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Congo's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Congo
2 deals recorded between Congo and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
China Ex-Im Bank agreed to restructure US$ 1.6 billion of outstanding debt from 8 China Ex-Im BNK loans signed by the ROC between 2010 and 2014, extending the maturities by 15 years. Gardner et al. (2020) report an increase in interest rates; Acker et al. (2020) a reduction in interest rates.
AidData 2.0; Gardner et al. (2020); Acker et al. (2020)
Creditor: China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC)
China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC) rescheduled US$ 115.8 million of arrears owed by the ROC from a 2005 supplier's credit. The agreement extended the maturity by 5 years and introduced an additional 3-year grace period.
AidData 2.0; Gardner et al. (2020); Acker et al. (2020)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Congo and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology