Chinese overseas lending / ERI
Eritrea: debt owed to China
In 2021, Eritrea is estimated to have owed China $2.14bn, which ranks it 44 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $2.24bn in 2018.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2018, when it rose by $1.54bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Eritrea, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 7 loan-level records for Eritrea as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2006 to 2015. Comparable commitments are available for 7 of those loans and sum to $567m. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 0 loans, grace period on 0, maturity on 0, any of the three on 0, and all three together on 0. The earlier file also carries 15 additional project rows for Eritrea outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Supply and various machinery in the fields of mining, agriculture, transportation and infrastructure phase III ID: ERI_22 · Source: JH CARI | $97m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | Hirgigo Hydropower plant upgrade ID: ERI_21 · Source: BU Energy, JH CARI | $100m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | Agro-processing Projects - 3 Food Cold Storage Warehouses in 3 Cities; 1 Canning Factory; Drip-irrigation PCV Pip Production Factory ID: ERI_16 · Source: JH CARI | $100m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | Machinery Supply for the Mining; Agriculture; Transport & Infrastructure Industries; Phase II ID: ERI_17 · Source: JH CARI | $62m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | Machinery Supply for the Mining; Agriculture; Transport & Infrastructure Industries; Phase I ID: ERI_15 · Source: JH CARI | $100m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2007 | China Exim Bank loans Eritrea 60 million USD to purchase interest in gold mine ID: ERI_11 · Source: AidData | $60m | USD 60,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2006 | China Exim Bank loans Eritrea 48 million USD for construction of Gedem cement factory ID: ERI_9 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $48m | USD 48,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Eritrea and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Eritrea reports owing to all creditors
Eritrea reported $772m of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $691m is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 277.5% of the reported external total and 70.6% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total. Here the estimate exceeds the reported total external debt, which is logically impossible for a single creditor. Either the reported record is incomplete or the estimate is wrong, and this data cannot say which. See the two-sources page.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $2.14bn | $772m | 277.5% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $488m | $691m | 70.6% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Eritrea's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology