Chinese overseas lending / ETH
Ethiopia: debt owed to China
In 2021, Ethiopia is estimated to have owed China $10.64bn, equal to 9.6% of its GDP, which ranks it 10 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $11.10bn in 2019.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2016, when it rose by $2.21bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Ethiopia, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Ethiopia reports owing to all creditors
Ethiopia reported $32.00bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $30.15bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 33.2% of the reported external total and 26.5% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $10.64bn | $32.00bn | 33.2% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $7.98bn | $30.15bn | 26.5% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Ethiopia's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Ethiopia
1 deal recorded between Ethiopia and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
China Ex-Im Bank grants a 20-year maturity extension on its commercial loan for the Addis-Djibouti railway.
AidData 2.0; Acker et al. (2020); Kratz et al. (2019)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Ethiopia and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology