Chinese overseas lending / ETH
Ethiopia: debt owed to China
In 2021, Ethiopia is estimated to have owed China $10.64bn, equal to 9.6% of its GDP, which ranks it 10 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $11.10bn in 2019.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2016, when it rose by $2.21bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Ethiopia, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 45 loan-level records for Ethiopia as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2001 to 2017. Comparable commitments are available for 45 of those loans and sum to $13.46bn. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 33 loans, grace period on 29, maturity on 30, any of the three on 33, and all three together on 29. The earlier file also carries 48 additional project rows for Ethiopia outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Export-Import Bank signs Ethiopia-Hunan Industrial Park Project Loan Agreement ID: ETH_92 · Source: JH CARI | $260m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2017 | Aysha Wind Farm II ID: ETH_90 · Source: BU Energy, JH CARI | $218m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2017 | Modjo-Hawassa Expressway ID: ETH_93 · Source: JH CARI | $172m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2017 | Electricity Supply Project for Bole-Lemi and Kilinto Industrial Parks ID: ETH_91 · Source: BU Energy, JH CARI | $83m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Akaki-IT Park (Guro) and Akaki-Lebu outer-Addis Abeba ring roads ID: ETH_87 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $177m | USD 177,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Addis Ababa Power Network Rehabilitation and Upgrading Project ID: ETH_86 · Source: JH CARI | $165m | n/a | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Bole Airport Expansion Passenger Terminal - Additional Finance ID: ETH_88 · Source: JH CARI | $117m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Kality Ring Road Interchange-Tulu Dimtu Roundabout Project; 20.6km ID: ETH_89 · Source: JH CARI | $103m | n/a | rate 2.6% | grace 5y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2015 | Omo-Quraz Sugar-5 ID: ETH_84 · Source: JH CARI | $550m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2015 | Transmission Project of Genale Dawa III-Yirgalem II-Wolayita Sodo II-Hawassa II ID: ETH_85 · Source: BU Energy, JH CARI | $250m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2015 | Ethiopia-Djibouti Railway Transmission Line Power Supply; 750km ID: ETH_83 · Source: BU Energy, JH CARI | $63m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2014 | Weilait Sugar Mill-Tugray Region ESC ID: ETH_82 · Source: JH CARI | $500m | n/a | rate 3% | grace 2y | maturity 12y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower SOE |
| 2014 | Dire Dawa-Dewalle Road; 220 km ID: ETH_78 · Source: JH CARI | $187m | n/a | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | Telecoms-Huawei-Electricity ID: ETH_80 · Source: JH CARI | $34m | n/a | rate 3% | grace 2y | maturity 12y | Huawei State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | Telecoms-ZTE-Electricity ID: ETH_81 · Source: JH CARI | $28m | n/a | rate 3% | grace 2y | maturity 12y | Zhongxing Telecommunication Equipment Corporation (ZTE) State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | Addis-Djibouti Railway (Ethiopian share); 3 tranches for a total of 2.49 bn USD ID: ETH_67 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $2.49bn | USD 2,490,000,000 | rate 3% | grace 6y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | Telecom Transformation and Expansion 7 Circles - Huawei ID: ETH_76 · Source: JH CARI | $800m | n/a | rate 3.4% | grace 3y | maturity 13y | Huawei State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | Telecom Transformation and Expansion 6 Circles - ZTE ID: ETH_75 · Source: JH CARI | $300m | n/a | rate 3.4% | grace 3y | maturity 13y | Zhongxing Telecommunication Equipment Corporation (ZTE) State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | Omo-Kuraz Sugar Factory 2; South Omo Zone ID: ETH_71 · Source: JH CARI | $290m | n/a | rate 3% | grace 3y | maturity 13y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2013 | Omo-Kuraz Sugar Factory 3; South Omo Zone ID: ETH_72 · Source: JH CARI | $290m | n/a | rate 3% | grace 3y | maturity 13y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2013 | Expansion of Bole International Airport ID: ETH_70 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $239m | USD 239,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | EXIM loans 143 million USD for the Addis Ababa -- Adama expressway and Ring Roads ID: ETH_69 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $143m | USD 143,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 13y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | Pushkin Square - Gottera Square/Bole Airport Road; 4.3km ID: ETH_73 · Source: JH CARI | $59m | n/a | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | SMEs ID: ETH_74 · Source: JH CARI | $25m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2012 | China Exim Bank Loans $1.02 Billion USD for Construction of Power Lines ID: ETH_59 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $1.02bn | USD 1,020,000,000 | rate 3.08% | grace 3y | maturity 15y | State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | China Exim Bank provides $293.3 million loan to Ethiopia for for Adama Wind Farm II ID: ETH_60 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, JH CARI | $293m | USD 293,300,000 | rate 2% | grace 8y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | Kessem Sugar Factory ID: ETH_64 · Source: JH CARI | $123m | n/a | rate 3.3% | grace 3y | maturity 10y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2012 | Loan for agriculture, agro-processing, and manufacturing industries ID: ETH_65 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $25m | USD 25,000,000 | rate 0.69% | grace 3y | maturity 10y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2011 | Addis-Ababa Light Rail; 17.35km ID: ETH_46 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $475m | n/a | rate 3% | grace 3y | maturity 10y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | Addis Ababa; 400km Transmission Lines and Substations; Gibe III Hydropower Project (total 612mn) ID: ETH_45 · Source: JH CARI | $188m | n/a | rate 2% | grace 8y | maturity 21y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | China and Ethiopia signed an agreement for loan for Addis Ababa Water Project ID: ETH_48 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $98m | RMB 635,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 8y | maturity 21y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | Eximbank loan for Gibe III Hydropower Project 10x187(1870MW) ID: ETH_56 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, JH CARI | $89m | n/a | rate 2% | grace 8y | maturity 21y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower SOE |
| 2011 | China Exim Bank loans 60 million USD to help upgrade Meskel Square - Bole Ring Road in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia ID: ETH_47 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $60m | USD 60,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | China provided $30 million Loan for development projects ID: ETH_51 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $4.64m | RMB 30,000,000 | rate 0% | grace 10y | maturity 20y | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | ICBC loans $420 million for construction of Gibe III Dam in Ethiopia ID: ETH_43 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $420m | USD 420,000,000 | rate 3.07% | grace 4y | maturity 11y | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2010 | China Eximbank provides loan for purchase of freight ships ID: ETH_42 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $235m | USD 234,766,400 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2010 | China EXIM Bank Loans Ethiopia 25 million USD for procurement of customs equipment ID: ETH_41 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $25m | USD 25,100,000 | rate 2% | grace 8y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | China loans Ethiopia US350M for Addis Ababa expressway construction ID: ETH_39 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $350m | USD 350,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | China loans $270 million USD for Genale Dawa Hydroelectric Power Station to Ethiopia ID: ETH_38 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, JH CARI | $270m | USD 270,000,000 | rate 2.43% | grace 3y | maturity 12y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | China EXIM Bank Loans funds for Construction of Adama Wind Farm I ID: ETH_34 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, JH CARI | $99m | USD 99,450,000 | rate 2% | grace 8y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2006 | Millenium Plan Telecom Project Phase I; II; III ID: ETH_26 · Source: JH CARI | $1.90bn | n/a | rate 6.3% | grace 3y | maturity 10y | Zhongxing Telecommunication Equipment Corporation (ZTE) State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2006 | EXIM Bank Loans $208 Million USD for Amerti Neshi Hydroelectric Power Plant and Muger Cement Projects ID: ETH_25 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $208m | USD 208,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2005 | China loans Ethiopia 15 million USD for Addis Ababa Ring Road Phase II ID: ETH_21 · Source: AidData | $15m | USD 15,000,000 | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
| 2001 | Chinese government provides 12 million USD loan to Ethiopia for Addis Ababa Ring Road Phase 1 ID: ETH_15 · Source: AidData | $12m | USD 12,000,000 | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity 30y | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
| 2001 | China provides interest-free loan for textile factory expansion ID: ETH_14 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $3.40m | USD 3,400,000 | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Ethiopia and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Ethiopia reports owing to all creditors
Ethiopia reported $32.00bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $30.15bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 33.2% of the reported external total and 26.5% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $10.64bn | $32.00bn | 33.2% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $7.98bn | $30.15bn | 26.5% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Ethiopia's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Ethiopia
1 deal recorded between Ethiopia and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
China Ex-Im Bank grants a 20-year maturity extension on its commercial loan for the Addis-Djibouti railway.
AidData 2.0; Acker et al. (2020); Kratz et al. (2019)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Ethiopia and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology