Chinese overseas lending / KGZ
Kyrgyz Republic: debt owed to China
In 2021, Kyrgyz Republic is estimated to have owed China $2.25bn, equal to 24.4% of its GDP, which ranks it 41 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $2.27bn in 2019.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2015, when it rose by $336m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Kyrgyz Republic, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 12 loan-level records for Kyrgyz Republic as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2006 to 2015. Comparable commitments are available for 12 of those loans and sum to $2.38bn. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 8 loans, grace period on 8, maturity on 8, any of the three on 8, and all three together on 8. The earlier file also carries 20 additional project rows for Kyrgyz Republic outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | China Provides $297.9M Loan for Phase 2 of North-South Transport Corridor in Kyrgyzstan - USD Tranche ID: KGZ_32 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $185m | USD 185,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2015 | China Provides $297.9M Loan for Phase 2 of North-South Transport Corridor in Kyrgyzstan - RMB Tranche ID: KGZ_31 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $111m | RMB 698,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | China loans 400 million USD for phase 1 of North-South transport corridor ID: KGZ_30 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $400m | USD 400,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 11y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | China loans 386 million USD for modernization of Bishkek Thermal Power Plant ID: KGZ_29 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021), BU Energy | $386m | USD 386,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 11y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | China loans Kyrgyzstan $389.74 million USD for construction of Datka-Kemin power transmission line and Kemin substation ID: KGZ_27 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $390m | USD 389,740,000 | rate 2% | grace 9y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | China loans Kyrgyzstan 130 million USD for reconstruction of two main roads ID: KGZ_28 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $130m | USD 130,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 11y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | China EXIM Bank provides 129.8 million USD export credit for Renovation of Two Roads ID: KGZ_24 · Source: AidData | $130m | USD 129,800,000 | rate 2% | grace 9y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | China Exim Bank loans Kyrgyzstan 208 million USD for Modernization of Power Transmission Line in Datka ID: KGZ_22 · Source: AidData | $208m | USD 208,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 5y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | China EXIM Bank Funds 91.4 Million USD for Section of Osh-Batken-Isfana Road Rehabilitation in Kyrgyzstan ID: KGZ_21 · Source: AidData | $91m | USD 91,400,000 | rate 2% | grace 9y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | China Provides $200M Loan to Kyrgyzstan for Road Construction ID: KGZ_19 · Source: AidData | $200m | USD 200,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2008 | China loans Kyrgyzstan 75 million USD for Osh-Irkeshtam road ID: KGZ_18 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $75m | USD 75,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 5y | maturity 25y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2006 | China Gave 77.8 Million USD Export Credit to Kyrgyzstan for the Construction of a Cement Factory ID: KGZ_14 · Source: AidData | $78m | USD 77,800,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Private sector |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Kyrgyz Republic and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Kyrgyz Republic reports owing to all creditors
Kyrgyz Republic reported $9.06bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $3.96bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 24.9% of the reported external total and 48.1% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $2.25bn | $9.06bn | 24.9% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $1.90bn | $3.96bn | 48.1% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Kyrgyz Republic's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Kyrgyz Republic
2 deals recorded between Kyrgyz Republic and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
Second rescheduling of the 2001 China Ex-Im Bank 100 mn RMB Government Concessional Loan to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Finance with 15-year maturity, no grace period and 3 percent annual interest rate. In 2014, the loan was restructured by reducing the annual interest rate by 100 bps. to 2 percent per year.
AidData 2.0
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
First rescheduling of the 2001 China Ex-Im Bank 100 mn RMB Government Concessional Loan to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Finance with 15-year maturity, no grace period and 3 percent annual interest rate. The 2003 agreement introduced a 4.5 year grace period, so that no debt service payments were required until 2007; interest and maturity remained unchanged.
AidData 2.0
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Kyrgyz Republic and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology