Chinese overseas lending / KGZ
Kyrgyz Republic: debt owed to China
In 2021, Kyrgyz Republic is estimated to have owed China $2.25bn, equal to 24.4% of its GDP, which ranks it 41 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $2.27bn in 2019.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2015, when it rose by $336m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Kyrgyz Republic, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Kyrgyz Republic reports owing to all creditors
Kyrgyz Republic reported $9.06bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $3.96bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 24.9% of the reported external total and 48.1% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $2.25bn | $9.06bn | 24.9% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $1.90bn | $3.96bn | 48.1% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Kyrgyz Republic's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Kyrgyz Republic
2 deals recorded between Kyrgyz Republic and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
Second rescheduling of the 2001 China Ex-Im Bank 100 mn RMB Government Concessional Loan to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Finance with 15-year maturity, no grace period and 3 percent annual interest rate. In 2014, the loan was restructured by reducing the annual interest rate by 100 bps. to 2 percent per year.
AidData 2.0
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
First rescheduling of the 2001 China Ex-Im Bank 100 mn RMB Government Concessional Loan to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Finance with 15-year maturity, no grace period and 3 percent annual interest rate. The 2003 agreement introduced a 4.5 year grace period, so that no debt service payments were required until 2007; interest and maturity remained unchanged.
AidData 2.0
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Kyrgyz Republic and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology