Chinese overseas lending / NER
Niger: debt owed to China
In 2021, Niger is estimated to have owed China $1.08bn, equal to 7.2% of its GDP, which ranks it 62 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $1.08bn in 2021.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2010, when it rose by $291m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Niger, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 7 loan-level records for Niger as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2008 to 2015. Comparable commitments are available for 7 of those loans and sum to $2.72bn. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 5 loans, grace period on 2, maturity on 4, any of the three on 5, and all three together on 2. The earlier file also carries 57 additional project rows for Niger outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Third Bridge over Niger River and Other Development Projects ID: NER_64 · Source: JH CARI | $15m | n/a | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | CNPC finances Agadem oil field development, pipeline projects, road and hotel construction. Commitment amount and recipient sector (private) are inferred from IMF Coordinated Foreign Direct Investment Survey ID: NER_59 · Source: Cabestan (2018) | $1.50bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower Private sector |
| 2013 | Fiber-optic Backbone ID: NER_63 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $103m | n/a | rate 1% | grace n/a | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower SOE |
| 2013 | China extends loan for electricity line to Niger Oil Refinery ID: NER_62 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, JH CARI | $73m | USD 73,000,000 | rate 1% | grace 5y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | Azelik Uranium Mine ID: NER_48 · Source: JH CARI | $103m | n/a | rate 1% | grace 5y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | China Funds Drinking Water Improvement Project in Niger ID: NER_51 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $43m | XOF 20,500,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2008 | SORAZ Oil Refinery Near Zinder ID: NER_34 · Source: Cabestan (2018), JH CARI | $880m | n/a | rate 6.5% | grace n/a | maturity 11y | China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower SPV |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Niger and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Niger reports owing to all creditors
Niger reported $4.97bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $4.24bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 21.6% of the reported external total and 6.1% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $1.08bn | $4.97bn | 21.6% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $256m | $4.24bn | 6.1% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Niger's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Niger
1 deal recorded between Niger and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: CNPC
China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) grants a 4-year maturity extension on an 800 mn USD loan from 2008 to the SORAZ refinery with original terms as follows: interest rate of 6-month LIBOR plus 350 basis points, a maturity of 11 years, and a 1 year grace period. 40 percent of the loan was guaranteed by the Government of Niger. At the time of the restructuring in 2018, 161 mn USD in debt was still outstanding.
AidData 2.0; Acker et al. (2020)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Niger and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology