Chinese overseas lending / NER
Niger: debt owed to China
In 2021, Niger is estimated to have owed China $1.08bn, equal to 7.2% of its GDP, which ranks it 62 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $1.08bn in 2021.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2010, when it rose by $291m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Niger, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Niger reports owing to all creditors
Niger reported $4.97bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $4.24bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 21.6% of the reported external total and 6.1% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $1.08bn | $4.97bn | 21.6% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $256m | $4.24bn | 6.1% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Niger's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Niger
1 deal recorded between Niger and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: CNPC
China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) grants a 4-year maturity extension on an 800 mn USD loan from 2008 to the SORAZ refinery with original terms as follows: interest rate of 6-month LIBOR plus 350 basis points, a maturity of 11 years, and a 1 year grace period. 40 percent of the loan was guaranteed by the Government of Niger. At the time of the restructuring in 2018, 161 mn USD in debt was still outstanding.
AidData 2.0; Acker et al. (2020)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Niger and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology