Chinese overseas lending / NPL
Nepal: debt owed to China
In 2021, Nepal is estimated to have owed China $603m, equal to 1.6% of its GDP, which ranks it 77 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $603m in 2021.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2019, when it rose by $82m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Nepal, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Nepal reports owing to all creditors
Nepal reported $8.82bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $7.76bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 6.8% of the reported external total and 4.7% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $603m | $8.82bn | 6.8% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $362m | $7.76bn | 4.7% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Nepal's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Nepal
1 deal recorded between Nepal and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
In 2017, China Ex-Im Bank rescheduled a 114.7 mn USD Government Concessional Loan from 2011 with the following original terms: 1.75% interest, 25 year maturity, 5 year grace period. The rescheduling agreement granted Nepal an additional grace period of 4.5 years.
AidData 2.0
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Nepal and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology