Chinese overseas lending / PHL
Philippines: debt owed to China
In 2021, Philippines is estimated to have owed China $2.06bn, equal to 0.5% of its GDP, which ranks it 45 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $2.87bn in 2019.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2019, when it rose by $772m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Philippines, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 10 loan-level records for Philippines as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2001 to 2017. Comparable commitments are available for 10 of those loans and sum to $1.51bn. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 4 loans, grace period on 5, maturity on 5, any of the three on 5, and all three together on 4. The earlier file also carries 18 additional project rows for Philippines outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Kaliwa Dam ID: PHL_28 · Source: US Ex-Im Bank | $211m | n/a | rate 2% | grace 6y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2017 | Chico River Irrigation System ID: PHL_27 · Source: US Ex-Im Bank | $62m | n/a | rate 2% | grace 7y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | GNPower Mariveles Coal-Fired Plant with Sinosure ID: PHL_20 · Source: BU Energy | $493m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SPV |
| 2010 | China loans Philippines P5.537b for Phase II of the Angat Water Utilisation and Aqueduct Improvement Project ID: PHL_19 · Source: AidData | $123m | PHP 5,540,000,000 | rate n/a | grace 5y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | China Exim Bank loans the Philippines 4.5 billion PP for Agno River Integrated Irrigation project ID: PHL_17 · Source: AidData | $100m | PHP 4,500,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2007 | China loans Philippines $100 million for Phase 2 of Non Intrusive Container Inspection System ID: PHL_16 · Source: AidData | $100m | USD 100,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2006 | EXIM Bank concessional loan for container scanning system ID: PHL_15 · Source: AidData | $50m | RMB 400,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2002 | China provides P16b loan to Philippines for Phase I of Mainline South Railway project ID: PHL_8 · Source: AidData | $312m | PHP 16,100,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2002 | China CAMCO loan USD24.9M for Philippines fisheries sector upgrade ID: PHL_7 · Source: AidData | $25m | USD 24,985,000 | rate 3% | grace 2y | maturity 8y | China National Construction & Agricultural Machinery Import & Export Corporation (CAMCO) State-owned enterprise | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2001 | CAMCO loans Philippines P1.53 billion for Banaoang Pump Irrigation Project ID: PHL_6 · Source: AidData | $35m | USD 35,000,000 | rate 3% | grace 2y | maturity 8y | China National Construction & Agricultural Machinery Import & Export Corporation (CAMCO) State-owned enterprise | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Philippines and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Philippines reports owing to all creditors
Philippines reported $106.64bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $59.70bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 1.9% of the reported external total and 0.5% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $2.06bn | $106.64bn | 1.9% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $274m | $59.70bn | 0.5% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Philippines's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology