Chinese overseas lending / SRB
Serbia: debt owed to China
In 2021, Serbia is estimated to have owed China $2.72bn, equal to 4.1% of its GDP, which ranks it 37 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $2.72bn in 2021.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2019, when it rose by $499m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Serbia, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 7 loan-level records for Serbia as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2009 to 2016. Comparable commitments are available for 7 of those loans and sum to $1.90bn. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 6 loans, grace period on 6, maturity on 6, any of the three on 6, and all three together on 6. The earlier file also carries 9 additional project rows for Serbia outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Loznica Thermal Power Station ID: SRB_16 · Source: BU Energy | $255m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SPV |
| 2016 | Construction of Highway E763 (Section Surcin-Obrenovac) Project ID: SRB_15 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $200m | USD 200,000,000 | rate 2.5% | grace 5y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | Phase II of the Package Project Kostolac-B Power Plant Project ID: SRB_14 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021), BU Energy | $608m | USD 608,000,000 | rate 2.5% | grace 5y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | Construction of Highway E763 (Section Obrenovac-LJIG) Project ID: SRB_13 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $301m | USD 301,000,000 | rate 2.5% | grace 5y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | China EXIM loans phase 1 $292-m to upgrade the Kostolac thermal power complex ID: SRB_9 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $292m | USD 292,400,000 | rate 3% | grace 5y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | China EXIM loans 204,900,000 yuan for container vehicles checking system ID: SRB_7 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $30m | RMB 204,900,000 | rate 3% | grace 3y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | China loans 216 million USD for the Zemun-Borca bridge ID: SRB_6 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $217m | USD 216,750,000 | rate 3% | grace 3y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Serbia and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Serbia reports owing to all creditors
Serbia reported $42.01bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $21.46bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 6.5% of the reported external total and 10.6% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $2.72bn | $42.01bn | 6.5% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $2.27bn | $21.46bn | 10.6% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Serbia's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Serbia
2 deals recorded between Serbia and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: Multiple
China cancels and reschedules several outstanding debts of Serbia, incl. claims of SAFE on the National Bank of Serbia, claims by China Ex-Im Bank on state-owned Serbian banks (with sovereign guarantees) and claims by China Ex-Im Bank on the central government. All of these debts date back to 1999, when Chinese entities provided large financial support to Serbia.
AidData 2.0
Creditor: Sinochem
In 2003, Sinochem International and Naftna Industrija Srbije (both SOEs) signed a debt relief agreement. The agreement cancelled 70 mn USD in outstanding payment obligations and rescheduled the remaining 196 mn USD in debt to be repayable in 16 semi-annual installments of approximately $14.2 million over an eight year period from June 30, 2004 to December 31, 2011. The interest rate on these outstanding obligations were reduced from 4.4% to LIBOR plus a 0.7% margin.
AidData 2.0
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Serbia and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology