Chinese overseas lending / TON
Tonga: debt owed to China
In 2021, Tonga is estimated to have owed China $105m, equal to 20.3% of its GDP, which ranks it 105 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $125m in 2014.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2011, when it rose by $34m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Tonga, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 4 loan-level records for Tonga as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2001 to 2016. Comparable commitments are available for 4 of those loans and sum to $144m. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 3 loans, grace period on 3, maturity on 3, any of the three on 3, and all three together on 3. The earlier file also carries 38 additional project rows for Tonga outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | China assists Tonga with the creation of a sports complex for the 2019 Pacific Games ID: TON_41 · Source: AidData | $25m | USD 24,800,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | Exim Bank loans 291 million RMB for National Road Improvement Program ID: TON_17 · Source: AidData, Lowy Institute | $43m | RMB 291,000,000 | rate 2% | grace 10y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2008 | China Exim Bank loans 72.14 million USD to Tonga for reconstruction of Nuku'alofa business district ID: TON_10 · Source: AidData, Lowy Institute | $72m | USD 72,140,000 | rate 2% | grace 10y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2001 | EXIMbank loans USD4.2M to renovate International Dateline Hotel ID: TON_1 · Source: AidData | $4.20m | USD 4,200,000 | rate 2.5% | grace 0y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Tonga and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Tonga reports owing to all creditors
Tonga reported $224m of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $186m is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 47.0% of the reported external total and 56.5% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $105m | $224m | 47.0% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $105m | $186m | 56.5% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Tonga's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Tonga
3 deals recorded between Tonga and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
Second rescheduling of the the 2007 RMB 440 mn Government Concessional loan with the following original loan terms: 2% interest rate, 5 year grace period, 20 year maturity, 1% management fee, and 0.75% commitment fee. The 2018 rescheduling agreement granted an additional 5-year grace period extension.
AidData 2.0
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
In 2014, China Ex-Im Bank rescheduled the 2010 RMB 291 million government concessional loan that carried the following borrowing terms: 2% interest rate, 5 year grace period, 20 year maturity, 1% management fee, and 0.75% commitment fee. The rescheduling extended the grace period of the loan by an additional five years.
AidData 2.0
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
In 2013, China Ex-Im Bank rescheduled a 2007 RMB 440 mn Government Concessional Loan that carried the following terms: 2% interest rate, 5 year grace period, 20 year maturity, 1% management fee, and 0.75% commitment fee. The agreement extended the grace period by an additional 5 years.
AidData 2.0
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Tonga and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology