Sovereign haircuts / TCD
Chad
2 concluded restructurings, between 2015 and 2018. The earliest default they settle began in 2014. The worst cost creditors 27.3% of the present value of their claim, in 2018. The longest gap between a default and its settlement was 1 year.
Every restructuring
Two measures of the same deals, never combined. The present-value haircut discounts what creditors got against what they were owed; the face-value reduction counts only principal written off.
| Default | Settled | Years to settle | Present-value haircut | Face-value reduction | Debt treated (2020 $) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2015 | 1 | 10.8% | 0.0% | $1.52B | Asonuma and Trebesch (2016) |
| 2017 | 2018 | 1 | 27.3% | 0.0% | $1.72B | Asonuma and Trebesch (2016) |
Source: Meyer, Reinhart & Trebesch (2022), Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo | Cruces & Trebesch (2013), Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts | Asonuma & Trebesch (2016) Debt treated is the amount restructured, deflated to constant 2020 US dollars in the source file. A negative haircut means the new instruments were worth more than the old claim. Methodology
Bond prices
0 of 2 Chad restructuring episodes have Waterloo prices during the restructuring interval
price only, never pbid or pask, and shows one line per bond from one year before default to one year after settlement. The author README defines price as “bond price in GBP and USD”; it does not document normalization to face value. Across all 329 haircut episodes, 111 have no Waterloo country-code match and 177 start after Dec 1, 1980. Those two counts overlap. 2 of 2 episodes start after the panel ends. 2 episodes have no Waterloo country-code match.Chad has restructuring episodes on this page, but none has a covered Waterloo price observation inside its restructuring interval in the public parquet bundled with this repo.
waterloo_bonds.price only; pbid and pask are not averaged into it. The author README defines price as “bond price in GBP and USD” and does not document face-value normalization. GBP and USD observations use separate labelled panels and y-axes. Of the 329 episodes in the haircut file, 111 have no Waterloo country-code match and 177 start after 1980-12-01; these counts overlap. Later episodes show an absence message rather than an implied zero.Source: Meyer, Reinhart & Trebesch, Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo (bond-price panel) | Harvard Dataverse, Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo Methodology
Default spells
| Spell | From | To | Years | Restructurings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCD_2014-2015 | 2014 | 2015 | 2 | 1 |
| TCD_2017-2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2 | 1 |
Source: Meyer, Reinhart & Trebesch (2022), Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo | Cruces & Trebesch (2013), Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts | Asonuma & Trebesch (2016) Duration counts both endpoints. The spells table also carries a cumulative-haircut column; it is not published here because it does not reconcile with the per-episode haircuts, see the methodology. Methodology
Debt still in default
$233.0M across 2 creditor classes in 2024. A haircut can only be measured once a restructuring concludes, so any of this that is still being negotiated is by construction absent from the tables above.
| Creditor class | In default, 2024 |
|---|---|
| Domestic (fiscal) arrears | $181.0M |
| Other official creditors | $52.0M |
Source: Bank of Canada-Bank of England Sovereign Default Database (CRAG) Bank of Canada terms (attribution). Includes domestic arrears, so it is not comparable with the debt-treated column above. Methodology
Restructurings with Chinese creditors
1 restructuring with a Chinese creditor is recorded here. No haircut is attached to any of them, so they cannot be placed on the scale above; the file records only whether face value or the interest rate was cut.
| Year | Type | Creditor | Terms |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Debt rescheduling only | China Ex-Im Bank | China Ex-Im Bank reached a restructuring agreement with the Government of Chad on the following three loans: 1) A 700 mn RMB loan with an interest rate of 1.5% and a 5-year grace period from 2007 2) A $25.06 million loan with an interest rate of 1.5% and a 5-year grace period from 2007 between China Ex-Im Bank and the government of Chad 3) A $330 million USD preferential buyer’s credit for the Rônier Oil Refinery And Pipeline Project with 15-year maturity, 5-year grace period, and an interest rate of 6-month LIBOR plus 300 basis points from 2011. The rescheduling agreement extended the maturities of all three loans. No details known. |
Source: Horn, Reinhart & Trebesch, China's overseas lending and debt restructurings Methodology