Housing cycles / PRT

Portugal

Real residential property prices, BIS index, 1988 to 2025-Q4. The index is rebased to 2010 = 100 for Portugal alone, so its level says nothing next to another country’s. Growth and drawdown are comparable across countries; the level is not.

+16.3%

Real prices, year on year

2025-Q4; nominal +18.9%

at peak

Off its own real peak

peak 2025-Q4

-34.5%

Deepest real drawdown

trough 2013-Q2, within the observed sample

1988

Index starts

152 quarters to 2025-Q4

Real house price index, annual

Annual means of the quarterly real index. A year is plotted only if all four of its quarters are present, so a partial year is dropped rather than averaged over whatever is present. The shaded band is the one Laeven-Valencia banking crisis measurable against this index, first year to last year.

Source: BIS residential property prices (selected series) | Laeven and Valencia, Systemic Banking Crises Database (2025 update) Latest real quarter 2025-Q4 = 196.2; highest observed real quarter 2025-Q4 = 196.2. Methodology

Banking crises

Run-up is the real index in the crisis year against five years earlier. Trough is the lowest of the crisis year and the five years after it, against the crisis year itself, so 0.0% means real prices never closed a year below the crisis-year level.

Crisis	Run-up t-5 to t	Trough vs t	Years to trough
2008 to 2012	-12.8%	-19.4%	5

Source: BIS residential property prices (selected series) | Laeven and Valencia, Systemic Banking Crises Database (2025 update) Methodology

Limits of this page. The drawdown figures are conditional on the sample: Portugal’s index begins in 1988, so a peak before then is invisible and the deepest drawdown is the deepest observedone. The crisis dating is Laeven-Valencia’s, not this repo’s. Nothing here is a causal claim. See the methodology for the full list.