Chinese overseas lending / ECU
Ecuador: debt owed to China
In 2021, Ecuador is estimated to have owed China $6.16bn, equal to 5.7% of its GDP, which ranks it 22 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $11.06bn in 2016.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2014, when it rose by $3.72bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Ecuador, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 19 loan-level records for Ecuador as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2009 to 2016. Comparable commitments are available for 19 of those loans and sum to $14.41bn. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 9 loans, grace period on 8, maturity on 10, any of the three on 10, and all three together on 8. The earlier file also carries 19 additional project rows for Ecuador outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | CDB signs 2 bn USD loan agreement with Ecuador ID: ECU_37 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $2.00bn | n/a | rate 7% | grace 2y | maturity 8y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2016 | Yachay Education Complex ID: ECU_38 · Source: Inter-American Dialogue | $198m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2015 | CDB provides 1.5 bn USD loan to finance the 2015 annual investment plan ID: ECU_35 · Source: Inter-American Dialogue | $1.50bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2015 | China Ex-Im Bank provides 250 mn USD loan for kitchen stoves ID: ECU_36 · Source: Inter-American Dialogue | $250m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | Finance Coca-Coda Dam Transmission System ID: ECU_34 · Source: BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $509m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | Bank of China loans Ecuador $218mn for highway and bridge construction projects ID: ECU_33 · Source: AidData, Inter-American Dialogue | $218m | USD 218,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity 13y | Bank of China (BOC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | Ecuador receives $1.4 billion from China for budget ID: ECU_31 · Source: AidData, Inter-American Dialogue | $1.40bn | USD 1,400,000,000 | rate 7% | grace 2y | maturity 8y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | Bank of China and Deutsche Bank China provide $298.9mn for the Canar and Naranjal flood control project ID: ECU_29 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021), Inter-American Dialogue | $299m | n/a | rate 4% | grace 4y | maturity 14y | Bank of China (BOC), Deutsche Bank Multiple commercial creditors | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | Road to Quito airport ID: ECU_32 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021) | $80m | n/a | rate 2% | grace 5y | maturity 20y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | China commits a loan of $240 million to Ecuador to set up security service ECU 911 ID: ECU_28 · Source: AidData | $240m | USD 240,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | Ecuador Signs $2B loan with CDB for renewable energy purposes ID: ECU_27 · Source: AidData, Inter-American Dialogue | $2.00bn | USD 2,000,000,000 | rate 6.9% | grace 3y | maturity 8y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | Advance payment for Petroecuador oil ID: ECU_23 · Source: Inter-American Dialogue | $1.00bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | PetroChina State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2011 | China Builds and Funds Minas San Francisco y la Union Hydroelectric Dam in Ecuador ID: ECU_25 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $313m | USD 313,000,000 | rate 6.35% | grace 4y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | CDB Finances 95.5 million USD to build Quijos hydroelectric plant ID: ECU_24 · Source: AidData, BU Energy | $96m | USD 95,500,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | China gives loan to construct Villonaco wind turbine farm in Ecuador in 2011 ID: ECU_26 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $34m | USD 34,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower SOE |
| 2010 | China Exim Bank loans Ecuador 1.7 billion USD for Coca Coda Sinclair hydroelectric facility ID: ECU_21 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021), BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $1.70bn | USD 1,700,000,000 | rate 6.9% | grace 5y | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | China Development Bank signs 1 billion USD loan for oil agreement with Petroecuador ID: ECU_18 · Source: AidData / Gelpern et al. (2021), Inter-American Dialogue | $1.00bn | USD 1,000,000,000 | rate 6% | grace 1y | maturity 4y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | China Ex-Im bank loans Ecuador 571 mn USD to build Sopladora hydroelectric plant ID: ECU_20 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, Inter-American Dialogue | $571m | USD 571,000,000 | rate 6.35% | grace n/a | maturity 15y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | Advance payment for Petroecuador oil ID: ECU_16 · Source: Inter-American Dialogue | $1.00bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | PetroChina State-owned enterprise | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Ecuador and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Ecuador reports owing to all creditors
Ecuador reported $58.12bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $38.75bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 10.6% of the reported external total and 15.9% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $6.16bn | $58.12bn | 10.6% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $6.16bn | $38.75bn | 15.9% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Ecuador's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Ecuador
2 deals recorded between Ecuador and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Development Bank | China Ex-Im Bank
China Development Bank grants Ecuador a new 1-year grace period in August 2020, which allowed for the postponement of $417 million in debt service payments. China Ex-Im Bank defers $474 million in debt service payments falling due between September 2020 and the end of 2021.
Kratz et al. (2020)
Creditor: China Development Bank
Renegotiation of terms under the four party agreement. No details are known, but since renegotiations were led by Ecuador's Hydrocarbon Minister, renegotiations likely affected the Oil Deliveries Agreement (which is an integral part of the loan agreement, see Gelpern et al. 2021)
Kratz et al. (2019)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Ecuador and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology