Chinese overseas lending / ECU
Ecuador: debt owed to China
In 2021, Ecuador is estimated to have owed China $6.16bn, equal to 5.7% of its GDP, which ranks it 22 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $11.06bn in 2016.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2014, when it rose by $3.72bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Ecuador, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Ecuador reports owing to all creditors
Ecuador reported $58.12bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $38.75bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 10.6% of the reported external total and 15.9% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $6.16bn | $58.12bn | 10.6% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $6.16bn | $38.75bn | 15.9% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Ecuador's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Ecuador
2 deals recorded between Ecuador and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Development Bank | China Ex-Im Bank
China Development Bank grants Ecuador a new 1-year grace period in August 2020, which allowed for the postponement of $417 million in debt service payments. China Ex-Im Bank defers $474 million in debt service payments falling due between September 2020 and the end of 2021.
Kratz et al. (2020)
Creditor: China Development Bank
Renegotiation of terms under the four party agreement. No details are known, but since renegotiations were led by Ecuador's Hydrocarbon Minister, renegotiations likely affected the Oil Deliveries Agreement (which is an integral part of the loan agreement, see Gelpern et al. 2021)
Kratz et al. (2019)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Ecuador and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology