Chinese overseas lending / KAZ
Kazakhstan: debt owed to China
In 2021, Kazakhstan is estimated to have owed China $18.22bn, equal to 9.2% of its GDP, which ranks it 6 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $25.32bn in 2015.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2009, when it rose by $4.94bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Kazakhstan, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 13 loan-level records for Kazakhstan as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2002 to 2013. Comparable commitments are available for 13 of those loans and sum to $7.47bn. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 1 loans, grace period on 1, maturity on 5, any of the three on 5, and all three together on 0. The earlier file also carries 4 additional project rows for Kazakhstan outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Third Unit of Ekibastuz GRES-2 Power Plant with Russia ID: KAZ_17 · Source: BU Energy | $400m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SPV |
| 2012 | China Development Bank commits $1.34 billion for financing of Aktogay mine ID: KAZ_14 · Source: AidData | $1.34bn | USD 1,340,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Private sector |
| 2012 | China committed a loan of $1.06B USD to Kazakhstan for construction of a crude oil refinery plant ID: KAZ_16 · Source: AidData | $1.06bn | USD 1,060,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity 14y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | China Development Bank commits 1 billion RMB for financing of Aktogay mine ID: KAZ_15 · Source: AidData | $158m | RMB 1,000,000,000 | rate n/a | grace 3y | maturity 15y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Private sector |
| 2011 | CDB loans Samruk-Kazyna Fund 2 billion USD; allocates $1.6 million for ENRC iron ore project ID: KAZ_12 · Source: AidData | $1.60bn | USD 1,600,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2011 | Exim Bank loans 1.38 billion USD for polypropylene plant in Atyrau ID: KAZ_13 · Source: AidData, BU Energy | $1.38bn | USD 1,380,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity 14y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower SOE |
| 2011 | CDB loans Samruk-Kazyna Fund $2 billion USD; allocates $400 million for ENRC chrome project ID: KAZ_11 · Source: AidData | $400m | USD 400,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2010 | Bank of China loans $232 million USD for KazMunayGas and Citic Group bitumen plant ID: KAZ_10 · Source: AidData | $232m | USD 232,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Bank of China (BOC) State-owned commercial bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SPV |
| 2008 | CDB commits $200 million credit to Kazakhstan for electronic power and infrastructure development ID: KAZ_9 · Source: AidData | $200m | USD 200,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
| 2007 | Exim Bank commits 292.8 million USD loan for development of Kazakhstan's first national aluminium smelter plant ID: KAZ_8 · Source: AidData | $293m | USD 292,800,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Private sector |
| 2007 | Exim Bank Finances $34M in Export Credits for Huawei Tech Eqmnt for Kazakhstan ID: KAZ_7 · Source: AidData | $34m | USD 34,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity 7y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Private sector |
| 2006 | CDB loans 200 million USD for Moynak Hydropower Plant ID: KAZ_3 · Source: AidData, BU Energy | $200m | USD 200,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2002 | Exim Bank commits $172 million USD for locomotives in Kazakhstan ID: KAZ_2 · Source: AidData | $172m | USD 172,000,000 | rate 5.3% | grace n/a | maturity 14y | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower SOE |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Kazakhstan and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Kazakhstan reports owing to all creditors
Kazakhstan reported $173.39bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $40.37bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 10.5% of the reported external total and 28.1% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $18.22bn | $173.39bn | 10.5% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $11.36bn | $40.37bn | 28.1% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Kazakhstan's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Kazakhstan
1 deal recorded between Kazakhstan and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
In 2014, China Ex-Im Bank and the Development Bank of Kazakhstan restructured a 199.5 mn USD preferential buyer's credit with 13-year maturity and 3 percent interest rate that was signed in 2012. The restructuring terms are unknown.
AidData 2.0
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Kazakhstan and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology