Chinese overseas lending / KAZ
Kazakhstan: debt owed to China
In 2021, Kazakhstan is estimated to have owed China $18.22bn, equal to 9.2% of its GDP, which ranks it 6 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $25.32bn in 2015.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2009, when it rose by $4.94bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Kazakhstan, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Kazakhstan reports owing to all creditors
Kazakhstan reported $173.39bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $40.37bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 10.5% of the reported external total and 28.1% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $18.22bn | $173.39bn | 10.5% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $11.36bn | $40.37bn | 28.1% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Kazakhstan's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Kazakhstan
1 deal recorded between Kazakhstan and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
In 2014, China Ex-Im Bank and the Development Bank of Kazakhstan restructured a 199.5 mn USD preferential buyer's credit with 13-year maturity and 3 percent interest rate that was signed in 2012. The restructuring terms are unknown.
AidData 2.0
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Kazakhstan and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology