Chinese overseas lending / MMR
Myanmar: debt owed to China
In 2021, Myanmar is estimated to have owed China $4.41bn, equal to 6.6% of its GDP, which ranks it 29 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $5.91bn in 2017.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2011, when it rose by $1.05bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Myanmar, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 17 loan-level records for Myanmar as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2000 to 2015. Comparable commitments are available for 16 of those loans and sum to $4.59bn. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 2 loans, grace period on 1, maturity on 2, any of the three on 3, and all three together on 0. The earlier file also carries 60 additional project rows for Myanmar outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | China Ex-Im Bank provides loan for micro-finance projects in agriculture ID: MMR_66 · Source: US Ex-Im Bank | $300m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower SOE |
| 2015 | Parliament Approves USD 39 mn Chinese Loan to Boost Police Spending ID: MMR_72 · Source: US Ex-Im Bank | $39m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | China signs $100 million loan agreement for rural microfinance with Myanmar ID: MMR_62 · Source: AidData | $100m | USD 100,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower SOE |
| 2013 | China to loan $92 million to Myanmar for constructing two train ID: MMR_63 · Source: AidData | $92m | USD 91,750,000 | rate 2% | grace n/a | maturity 15y | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | China Development Bank provides a 765 million USD loan to Myanmar ID: MMR_51 · Source: AidData | $765m | USD 765,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | Sino-Myanmar Pipeline with International Financiers ID: MMR_48 · Source: BU Energy | $2.40bn | n/a | rate n/a | grace 5.6y | maturity 15.71y | China Development Bank (CDB) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2009 | China provides three MA60 aircrafts to Myanmar ID: MMR_46 · Source: AidData | n/a | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2006 | China loans 84 million USD to buy two oil rigs ID: MMR_35 · Source: AidData | $84m | USD 84,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2006 | China provides seller's credit for construction of paper mill ID: MMR_36 · Source: AidData | $82m | USD 81,500,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Construction Bank (CCB), China International Trust and Investment Corporation (CITIC) Multiple commercial creditors | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2006 | Eximbank provides $31.5 million loan to Myanmar ID: MMR_37 · Source: AidData | $32m | USD 31,500,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2004 | China funds construction of fertilizer plant in Myanmar ID: MMR_24 · Source: AidData | $200m | USD 200,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2004 | Loan for Upper Paunglaung Dam (Punglaung II) Hydroelectric Project ID: MMR_27 · Source: AidData | $69m | USD 68,800,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2004 | China loans 15 million yuan to Myanmar for construction of New Generator Plant at Sinde ID: MMR_26 · Source: AidData | $1.81m | RMB 15,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2003 | Eximbank loans for construction of a hydroelectric power project at Yeywa ID: MMR_22 · Source: AidData, BU Energy | $200m | USD 200,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2000 | Eximbank export seller's loan to build a dam in the Lower Paunglaung Hydropower Project ID: MMR_15 · Source: AidData | $121m | RMB 1,000,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2000 | China extends seller's credit to build the Thabaung pulp mill ID: MMR_14 · Source: AidData | $90m | USD 90,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | Unspecified Chinese government agency Unspecified Chinese government agency | Loan loan type n/a · borrower Central government |
| 2000 | China commits to agricultural machinery factory project ID: MMR_12 · Source: AidData | $18m | RMB 144,880,000 | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Myanmar and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Myanmar reports owing to all creditors
Myanmar reported $13.76bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $11.80bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 32.1% of the reported external total and 25.6% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $4.41bn | $13.76bn | 32.1% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $3.02bn | $11.80bn | 25.6% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Myanmar's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Myanmar
1 deal recorded between Myanmar and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: Sinosure
In August 2004, China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure) and the Myanmar Ministry of Finance & Revenue signed a Debt Rescheduling Agreement for a $94 million loan. It was originally due on November 1, 1999. According to AidData, Sinosure extended a two-year grace period, which started on July 1, 2004.
AidData 2.0
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Myanmar and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology