Chinese overseas lending / TCD
Chad: debt owed to China
In 2021, Chad is estimated to have owed China $406m, equal to 2.4% of its GDP, which ranks it 82 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $643m in 2016.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2011, when it rose by $144m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Chad, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Chad reports owing to all creditors
Chad reported $3.58bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $2.64bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 11.3% of the reported external total and 15.4% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $406m | $3.58bn | 11.3% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $406m | $2.64bn | 15.4% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Chad's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Chad
1 deal recorded between Chad and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
China Ex-Im Bank reached a restructuring agreement with the Government of Chad on the following three loans: 1) A 700 mn RMB loan with an interest rate of 1.5% and a 5-year grace period from 2007 2) A $25.06 million loan with an interest rate of 1.5% and a 5-year grace period from 2007 between China Ex-Im Bank and the government of Chad 3) A $330 million USD preferential buyer’s credit for the Rônier Oil Refinery And Pipeline Project with 15-year maturity, 5-year grace period, and an interest rate of 6-month LIBOR plus 300 basis points from 2011. The rescheduling agreement extended the maturities of all three loans. No details known.
AidData 2.0; Acker et al. (2020); Bon and Cheng (2020)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Chad and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology