Chinese overseas lending / TJK
Tajikistan: debt owed to China
In 2021, Tajikistan is estimated to have owed China $1.98bn, equal to 22.2% of its GDP, which ranks it 46 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $2.22bn in 2017.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2015, when it rose by $438m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Tajikistan, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Tajikistan reports owing to all creditors
Tajikistan reported $6.59bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $3.14bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 30.0% of the reported external total and 43.7% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $1.98bn | $6.59bn | 30.0% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $1.37bn | $3.14bn | 43.7% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Tajikistan's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
People’s Bank of China swap drawings
Tajikistan carried a drawn swap balance in 1 year of the panel, peaking at $0.14m. A drawing is a liability to another central bank, and it is not netted out of a headline gross reserves figure.
| Year | Drawn balance | Share of the year’s China total |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $0.14m | 0.0% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: every year in which Tajikistan carried a drawn PBoC swap-line balance above zero. Methodology
The same balance measured against gross international reserves, for every country that has drawn
Chinese restructurings involving Tajikistan
2 deals recorded between Tajikistan and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Kratz et al. (2019) and several media sources list a restructuring with Tajikistan with potential links to the settlement of a border dispute, in which Tajikistan ceded 386 square miles in land to China. No details known.
Kratz et al. (2019)
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
China Ex-Im Bank restructures a 1997 RMB 50 mn concessional loan to Tajikistan for a cigarette factory joint venture. When the initial grace period ended in December 2002, the loan was restructured to have the following terms: 20-year maturity, 5-year grace and a (reduced) interest rate of 1%. The original loan terms are unknown.
AidData 2.0
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Tajikistan and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology