Chinese overseas lending / ZWE
Zimbabwe: debt owed to China
In 2021, Zimbabwe is estimated to have owed China $1.50bn, equal to 5.5% of its GDP, which ranks it 52 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $1.58bn in 2018.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2015, when it rose by $444m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Zimbabwe, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Zimbabwe reports owing to all creditors
Zimbabwe reported $14.11bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $4.88bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 10.6% of the reported external total and 28.2% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $1.50bn | $14.11bn | 10.6% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $1.37bn | $4.88bn | 28.2% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Zimbabwe's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
Chinese restructurings involving Zimbabwe
5 deals recorded between Zimbabwe and Chinese state creditors. These are context, not accounting: the source records face-value reduction as a flag rather than a magnitude, so no haircut percentage exists for them, and nothing here is netted off the estimated stock above.
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
In 2012, China Ex-Im Bank restructured a 2006 200 mn USD buyer's credit for an Agricultural Supply Project. The loan originally carried a 5-year grace period, an 11-year maturity and was supposed to be repaid by export procceds from platinum. The 2012 restructuring agreement granted an additional 3-year grace period after Zimbabwe had failed to repay the loan in time.
AidData 2.0; Acker et al. (2020)
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
Third rescheduling of the 1997 buyer's credit loan to ZISCO that had already been restructured in 2003 and 2007. The 2010 agreement extended the grace period by another 3 years.
AidData 2.0; Acker et al. (2020)
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
Second rescheduling of the 1997 buyer's credit loan to ZISCO that had already been restructured in 2003. The 2007 agreement introduced an additiona 3-year grace period.
AidData 2.0; Acker et al. (2020)
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
In 2004, China Ex-Im Bank restructured a RMB 48.2 mn Government Concessional Loan to the Government of Zimbabwe’s Industrial Development Commission (IDC). The loan carried the following original loan terms: a 15-year maturity, 5-year grace period, and 3% interest rate. The 2004 agreement reduced the interest rate by 100 bps. and extended the maturity by 4 years.
AidData 2.0; Acker et al. (2020)
Creditor: China Ex-Im Bank
First rescheduling of the 1997 China Ex-Im Bank buyer's credit to ZISCO. The agreement reduced interest rates by 300 bps. from 7 to 4 percent per year and extended the maturity by 3 years.
AidData 2.0; Acker et al. (2020)
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, Hidden Defaults (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9925). Selection: every recorded restructuring agreement between Zimbabwe and a Chinese state creditor. Face-value reduction is a 0/1 flag in the source, not a percentage; the badge appears only where the source sets it. Methodology