Chinese overseas lending / PAK
Pakistan: debt owed to China
In 2021, Pakistan is estimated to have owed China $34.05bn, equal to 9.8% of its GDP, which ranks it 2 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $34.05bn in 2021. Of the 2021 total, $4.71bn is a drawn People’s Bank of China swap-line balance, a central-bank liability rather than a loan to the government.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2017, when it rose by $6.75bn.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Pakistan, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Against what Pakistan reports owing to all creditors
Pakistan reported $130.75bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $95.29bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 22.4% of the reported external total and 30.5% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $29.34bn | $130.75bn | 22.4% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $29.04bn | $95.29bn | 30.5% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Pakistan's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology
People’s Bank of China swap drawings
Pakistan carried a drawn swap balance in 9 years of the panel, peaking at $4.71bn. A drawing is a liability to another central bank, and it is not netted out of a headline gross reserves figure.
| Year | Drawn balance | Share of the year’s China total |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | $819m | 15.7% |
| 2014 | $1.06bn | 18.5% |
| 2015 | $1.54bn | 19.1% |
| 2016 | $1.44bn | 12.5% |
| 2017 | $1.54bn | 8.4% |
| 2018 | $2.92bn | 11.9% |
| 2019 | $2.86bn | 10.1% |
| 2020 | $3.06bn | 10.6% |
| 2021 | $4.71bn | 13.8% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: every year in which Pakistan carried a drawn PBoC swap-line balance above zero. Methodology
The same balance measured against gross international reserves, for every country that has drawn