Banks / Backtest
Did the composite see failures coming?
Every FDIC-resolved failure since 2016 (32 banks), against the FinObservatory composite the bank carried at its last call report before failing. This is the out-of-sample record, published in full: the median pre-failure composite is 20.7 against a panel-wide median of 50.5, so the score does discriminate; and 8 of the 32 failures scored 35 or better at their last report, so it also misses, and the misses are named below.
The base rate, first
A low score is common; failure is rare. Of the 1,255 bank-quarters below composite 20 between 2016 and 2024Q1 (every one with a full two-year window inside the panel), 76 were followed by that bank's failure within two years: 6.1%. Read the other way, 93.9% of flagged bank-quarters were NOT followed by failure. 384 distinct banks have spent at least one quarter below 20 since 2016; 21 of them later failed. A screen this size cannot be read as a failure prediction, and this page never presents it as one.
The misses, named
8 failures scored 35 or better at their last report. The largest is Silicon Valley Bank (composite 63.5 at 2022Q4, ten weeks before it failed): its held-to-maturity losses and uninsured-deposit concentration are invisible in the score's public call-report fields, a limit documented on the banks methodology page since the score shipped. The others are in the table. This page reports the scores and does not assign failure causes.
All 32 failures since 2016
Composite at the bank’s last call report before failure; the gap column is the days between that report and the failure date.
| Bank | Failed | Last report | Composite | Gap (days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORTH MILWAUKEE STATE BANK | 2016-03-11 | 2015-12-31 | 12.1 | 71 |
| TRUST COMPANY BANK | 2016-04-29 | 2016-03-31 | 11.0 | 29 |
| FIRST CORNERSTONE BANK | 2016-05-06 | 2016-03-31 | 14.6 | 36 |
| THE WOODBURY BANKING COMPANY | 2016-08-19 | 2016-06-30 | 18.0 | 50 |
| ALLIED BANK | 2016-09-23 | 2016-06-30 | 11.1 | 85 |
| HARVEST COMMUNITY BANK | 2017-01-13 | 2016-12-31 | 10.2 | 13 |
| SEAWAY BANK AND TRUST COMPANY | 2017-01-27 | 2016-12-31 | 8.6 | 27 |
| PROFICIO BANK | 2017-03-03 | 2016-12-31 | 13.8 | 62 |
| FIRST NBC BANK | 2017-04-28 | 2017-03-31 | 23.6 | 28 |
| GUARANTY BANK | 2017-05-05 | 2017-03-31 | 21.3 | 35 |
| FAYETTE COUNTY BANK | 2017-05-26 | 2017-03-31 | 15.1 | 56 |
| THE FARMERS AND MERCHANTS STATE BANK OF ARGONIA | 2017-10-13 | 2017-09-30 | 14.4 | 13 |
| WASHINGTON FEDERAL BANK FOR SAVINGS | 2017-12-15 | 2017-09-30 | 74.5 | 76 |
| ENLOE STATE BANK | 2019-05-31 | 2019-03-31 | 52.7 | 61 |
| LOUISA COMMUNITY BANK | 2019-10-25 | 2019-09-30 | 4.9 | 25 |
| RESOLUTE BANK | 2019-10-25 | 2019-09-30 | 18.3 | 25 |
| CITY NATIONAL BANK OF NEW JERSEY | 2019-11-01 | 2019-09-30 | 23.6 | 32 |
| ERICSON STATE BANK | 2020-02-14 | 2019-12-31 | 19.5 | 45 |
| THE FIRST STATE BANK | 2020-04-03 | 2020-03-31 | 20.0 | 3 |
| FIRST CITY BANK OF FLORIDA | 2020-10-16 | 2020-09-30 | 26.8 | 16 |
| ALMENA STATE BANK | 2020-10-23 | 2020-09-30 | 12.1 | 23 |
| SILICON VALLEY BANK | 2023-03-10 | 2022-12-31 | 63.5 | 69 |
| SIGNATURE BANK | 2023-03-12 | 2022-12-31 | 42.7 | 71 |
| FIRST REPUBLIC BANK | 2023-05-01 | 2023-03-31 | 36.7 | 31 |
| HEARTLAND TRI-STATE BANK | 2023-07-28 | 2023-03-31 | 48.1 | 119 |
| CITIZENS BANK | 2023-11-03 | 2023-09-30 | 29.6 | 34 |
| REPUBLIC BANK | 2024-04-26 | 2023-12-31 | 25.7 | 117 |
| FIRST NB OF LINDSAY | 2024-10-18 | 2024-09-30 | 18.9 | 18 |
| PULASKI SAVINGS BANK | 2025-01-17 | 2024-09-30 | 51.3 | 109 |
| SANTA ANNA NATIONAL BANK | 2025-06-27 | 2025-03-31 | 40.8 | 88 |
| METROPOLITAN CAPITAL B&T | 2026-01-30 | 2025-12-31 | 25.4 | 30 |
| COMMUNITY BANK AND TRUST - WEST GEORGIA | 2026-05-01 | 2025-12-31 | 27.3 | 121 |
Green: below the 20 reporting threshold at the last report (15 of 32). Red: 35 or better (the misses). The threshold is a reporting convention for this page, not a model parameter; the panel's 10th percentile sits near 34 and its median near 50.5.
Method
- Failures: FDIC Failures and Assistance Transactions, RESTYPE=FAILURE, 2016 onward. Scores: the same quarterly composite panel the bank screener serves (2015Q1 onward), so every number here is recomputable from the site’s own data.
- “Last report” is the latest call-report quarter strictly before the failure date; every failure since 2016 has one.
- The false-positive window ends at 2024Q1 so each flagged quarter has a full two-year horizon inside the panel; flags after that date are excluded from the base rate, not resolved optimistically.
- Formula and disclaimers: banks methodology. The composite is a transparent proxy from public filings; it is not CAMELS, and this backtest is descriptive, not a prediction model.