Chinese overseas lending / MLI
Mali: debt owed to China
In 2021, Mali is estimated to have owed China $686m, equal to 3.0% of its GDP, which ranks it 75 of 126 borrowers in the panel by dollars owed. The estimated stock peaked at $686m in 2021.
The estimated stock, 2000 to 2021
The largest single-year move in the estimated stock is 2018, when it rose by $88m.
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending. Selection: estimated stock owed to China by Mali, by year and instrument, 2000 to 2021. Zeros are estimated zeros (no known loans outstanding), not missing values. Methodology
Historical loan records from the 2021 release
These records come from the 2021 HRT Mendeley replication release, not the November 2025 refreshed stock panel charted above. The refresh uses the updated Franz, Horn, Parks, Reinhart and Trebesch methodology, so this table cannot be reconciled to the chart. The earlier release marks 7 loan-level records for Mali as part of its debt-estimate sample, spanning 2008 to 2014. Comparable commitments are available for 7 of those loans and sum to $679m. These are gross commitments, not outstanding debt stocks. The stock methodology applies disbursement and amortisation profiles, with imputation where loan terms are missing, so the commitment sum must not be compared with the stock above. See the methodology. Terms are sparse by source: interest rate appears on 1 loans, grace period on 0, maturity on 0, any of the three on 1, and all three together on 0. The earlier file also carries 63 additional project rows for Mali outside that sample, so they are not included in this table.
| Year | Project | Commitment, USD | Commitment, source currency | Terms | Creditor | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Taoussa hydropower Project ID: MLI_69 · Source: AidData, BU Energy | $96m | RMB 619,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2014 | China loans 39 billion XOF for fibre optic network ID: MLI_67 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $79m | USD 79,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2013 | Gouina Hydropower Project 140MW ID: MLI_63 · Source: AidData, BU Energy, JH CARI | $248m | USD 248,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Commercial · borrower Central government |
| 2012 | China provides 16.8 billion CFA loan for priority projects in Mali ID: MLI_60 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $33m | XOF 16,800,000,000 | rate 0% | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) Chinese government | Loan Zero-Interest Loan · borrower Central government |
| 2011 | China Eximbank loans 276.8 million CNY for fiber optics and telecommunications modernization to Mali ID: MLI_47 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $43m | RMB 276,800,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2010 | China loans 75 billion CFA francs for Bamako-Segou highway ID: MLI_45 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $151m | XOF 75,000,000,000 | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower Central government |
| 2008 | Sukala Sugar Refinery; 3rd Sugar Refinery/N-Sukala ID: MLI_39 · Source: AidData, JH CARI | $29m | n/a | rate n/a | grace n/a | maturity n/a | China Export-Import Bank (Ex-Im) State-owned policy bank | Loan Concessional · borrower SPV |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (2021 Mendeley replication loan file). Selection: 2021 replication loan records mapped to Mali and flagged DebtEstimateSample = 1 in that release. This is an earlier source universe, not the records used for the November 2025 refreshed stock panel. CommitmentUSD is a gross commitment flow and is not comparable to the charted stock. Commitment stays in its source currency, and ProjectDescription is rendered as free-text data from the file. Methodology
Against what Mali reports owing to all creditors
Mali reported $6.38bn of total external debt to all creditors in 2021, of which $5.35bn is public and publicly guaranteed. The China estimate is 10.7% of the reported external total and 12.8% of the reported public and guaranteed stock. These are ratios of two different measurements, one estimated and one borrower-reported, and they are not a share of a single consistent total.
| Measure, 2021 | Estimated, owed China | Reported, all creditors | Ratio, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total external debt | $686m | $6.38bn | 10.7% |
| Public and publicly guaranteed | $686m | $5.35bn | 12.8% |
Source: Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch, China’s Overseas Lending (estimated stocks), and World Bank International Debt Statistics, borrower-reported via the Debtor Reporting System (all-creditor stocks). Selection: estimated external and PPG stock owed to China in 2021 against Mali's reported DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.DOD.DPPG.CD for the same year. Drawn swap balances are excluded from the estimated column: they are a central-bank liability the Debtor Reporting System's long-term-debt concepts do not carry. Methodology